{
  "version": "global-orchard-outcome-audit1",
  "checkedUtc": "2026-10-18T17:56:03.883682+00:00",
  "crop": "Cultivated edible table/oil Olea europaea subsp.europaea cultivars; no feral African-olive occurrence records",
  "input": {
    "file": "orchard-evidence.json",
    "sha256": "eeb92a08add77e25f49f45995fd52bf6ef5f86a15aaf77eb5b064eeedb6ce93e",
    "originalRecords": 25,
    "supplementaryRecords": 1
  },
  "scope": "Measured orchard outcomes constrain climate response functions; location of a study never increases map score.",
  "protocol": {
    "scoreBlindAudit": "This audit did not open orchard-validation.json or sample new model scores. Outcomes and split are based on source evidence and previous development use.",
    "splitDeclaredBeforeNewScoreExtraction": true,
    "unit": "One study/geographic cluster, not each cultivar, treatment, tree, nearby plot or year",
    "geographicHoldouts": [
      "northeastern_portugal",
      "messinia",
      "sfax_tunisia",
      "uruguay_humid_temperate",
      "northern_chile",
      "central_chile",
      "argentina",
      "texas_malik2011"
    ],
    "trainingRule": "Fit only globally available physical climate/hazard features in development data; no orchard radius, country ID or nearest-study bonus. Freeze/station calibration uses station climate data, not orchard-presence labels.",
    "positiveCheck": "Repeated measured harvests must remain compatible with production under the documented cultivar/water/management regime. A strong false exclusion is score<40; this threshold is a screen policy, not an observed yield-probability calibration target.",
    "failureCheck": "Repeated documented nonflowering must not be described as dependable prime production. Check the entire Texas study as one held-out challenge, not two independent negatives.",
    "annualReliability": "No per-location probability target is invented. Positive potential, alternate bearing, observed annual series, young-tree effects and climate damage are distinct outcomes.",
    "unknownIsNotNegative": true,
    "holdoutReporting": "Report every held-out cluster and contradiction. If held-out data are used to revise a component, declare them development and do not report them as untouched validation."
  },
  "counts": {
    "records": 26,
    "eligibleSites": 23,
    "eligibleStudyClusters": 17,
    "outcomeClasses": {
      "repeated_measured_production": 9,
      "short_measured_production": 8,
      "freeze_damage_challenge": 1,
      "repeated_categorical_production": 1,
      "repeated_quality_sampling": 1,
      "repeated_flowering_constraint": 2,
      "excluded_location": 3,
      "cultivar_dependent_production_challenge": 1
    },
    "splitRecords": {
      "development_already_discussed": 10,
      "study_and_geographic_holdout": 13,
      "excluded": 3
    }
  },
  "sites": [
    {
      "id": "es_pedro_abad_longterm",
      "name": "Pedro Abad cultivar and density trials, Cordoba, Spain",
      "lat": 37.9588889,
      "lng": -4.4622222,
      "coordinatePrecisionKm": 2,
      "coordinateProvenance": "Source prints 37°57′32″N, 4°27′44″W; 162m.",
      "studyCluster": "pedro_abad_2016",
      "geographicCluster": "southern_iberia",
      "eligible": true,
      "waterScenario": "irrigated",
      "management": "Drip 2000m3/ha/year, sometimes extended to October.",
      "cultivars": [
        "Arbequina",
        "Arbequina IRTA-i18",
        "Arbosana",
        "Koroneiki",
        "Fs-17"
      ],
      "years": [
        2002,
        2003,
        2004,
        2005,
        2006,
        2007,
        2008,
        2009,
        2010,
        2011,
        2012,
        2013
      ],
      "harvestYears": 12,
      "observations": "Twelve annual harvested crops after planting in 2000. Mean fruit yield 13.1t/ha/year for Arbequina and 14.2 for Arbosana; marked losses after freezes and flowering heat.",
      "freezeEvidence": "Trees damaged by winter 2004-2005 temperatures below -9C and 2011-2012 below -6C; winter waterlogging and >30C bloom heat also recorded.",
      "sources": [
        {
          "title": "Cultivar and Tree Density As Key Factors in the Long-Term Performance of Super High-Density Olive Orchards",
          "url": "https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/plant-science/articles/10.3389/fpls.2016.01226/full",
          "doi": "10.3389/fpls.2016.01226",
          "locator": "Materials and methods; Tables 1-3; climatic episodes"
        }
      ],
      "outcomeClass": "repeated_measured_production",
      "priorUsed": false,
      "measuredFruitYieldAvailable": true,
      "annualReliabilityStatus": "sustained_with_climate_losses",
      "futureAnnualHarvestProbability": null,
      "numericSuitabilityTarget": null,
      "sourceReview": "Primary source re-opened in current audit",
      "observedAnnualYieldSeries": {
        "unit": "tonnes fresh fruit/ha",
        "seasonStartYears": [
          2002,
          2003,
          2004,
          2005,
          2006,
          2007,
          2008,
          2009,
          2010,
          2011,
          2012,
          2013
        ],
        "cultivar": "Arbequina",
        "values": [
          16.6,
          17.2,
          21.6,
          6.3,
          8.0,
          9.9,
          10.5,
          10.9,
          15.3,
          13.3,
          8.9,
          19.4
        ]
      },
      "productionAggregates": [
        {
          "cultivar": "Arbequina",
          "measure": "mean fruit yield",
          "value": 13.1,
          "unit": "tonnes fruit/ha/year",
          "nHarvests": 12,
          "sourceLocator": "Table 1 and long-term cultivar trial, 2002/03-2013/14"
        },
        {
          "cultivar": "Arbequina",
          "measure": "alternate bearing index",
          "value": 0.2,
          "unit": "index 0-1",
          "years": [
            2002,
            2003,
            2004,
            2005,
            2006,
            2007,
            2008,
            2009,
            2010,
            2011,
            2012,
            2013
          ],
          "sourceLocator": "Table 2; 3rd-14th year after planting"
        },
        {
          "cultivar": "Arbequina IRTA-i18",
          "measure": "alternate bearing index",
          "value": 0.23,
          "unit": "index 0-1",
          "years": [
            2002,
            2003,
            2004,
            2005,
            2006,
            2007,
            2008,
            2009,
            2010,
            2011,
            2012,
            2013
          ],
          "sourceLocator": "Table 2; 3rd-14th year after planting"
        },
        {
          "cultivar": "Arbosana",
          "measure": "alternate bearing index",
          "value": 0.3,
          "unit": "index 0-1",
          "years": [
            2002,
            2003,
            2004,
            2005,
            2006,
            2007,
            2008,
            2009,
            2010,
            2011,
            2012,
            2013
          ],
          "sourceLocator": "Table 2; 3rd-14th year after planting"
        },
        {
          "cultivar": "Koroneiki",
          "measure": "alternate bearing index",
          "value": 0.33,
          "unit": "index 0-1",
          "years": [
            2002,
            2003,
            2004,
            2005,
            2006,
            2007,
            2008,
            2009,
            2010,
            2011,
            2012,
            2013
          ],
          "sourceLocator": "Table 2; 3rd-14th year after planting"
        },
        {
          "cultivar": "Fs-17",
          "measure": "alternate bearing index",
          "value": 0.47,
          "unit": "index 0-1",
          "years": [
            2002,
            2003,
            2004,
            2005,
            2006,
            2007,
            2008,
            2009,
            2010,
            2011,
            2012,
            2013
          ],
          "sourceLocator": "Table 2; 3rd-14th year after planting"
        }
      ],
      "outcomeSeries": [],
      "use": {
        "independentUnit": "pedro_abad_2016",
        "spatialWeightingUnit": "southern_iberia",
        "split": "development_already_discussed",
        "positivePotentialCheck": true,
        "floweringConstraintCheck": false,
        "reliabilityProbabilityTrainingEligible": false,
        "coordinateBonusAllowed": false
      },
      "originalGeographicCluster": "southern_iberia",
      "additionalObservedAnnualYieldSeries": [
        {
          "cultivar": "Arbequina IRTA-i18",
          "unit": "tonnes fresh fruit/ha",
          "seasonStartYears": [
            2002,
            2003,
            2004,
            2005,
            2006,
            2007,
            2008,
            2009,
            2010,
            2011,
            2012,
            2013
          ],
          "values": [
            14.8,
            14.0,
            20.1,
            6.2,
            8.5,
            13.2,
            9.6,
            10.3,
            16.0,
            15.1,
            7.2,
            22.8
          ],
          "sourceLocator": "Table 1; crop seasons2002/03-2013/14, one shared field trial"
        },
        {
          "cultivar": "Arbosana",
          "unit": "tonnes fresh fruit/ha",
          "seasonStartYears": [
            2002,
            2003,
            2004,
            2005,
            2006,
            2007,
            2008,
            2009,
            2010,
            2011,
            2012,
            2013
          ],
          "values": [
            17.2,
            9.0,
            19.4,
            7.4,
            17.4,
            9.0,
            15.3,
            10.8,
            20.4,
            15.0,
            10.6,
            18.7
          ],
          "sourceLocator": "Table 1; crop seasons2002/03-2013/14, one shared field trial"
        },
        {
          "cultivar": "Koroneiki",
          "unit": "tonnes fresh fruit/ha",
          "seasonStartYears": [
            2002,
            2003,
            2004,
            2005,
            2006,
            2007,
            2008,
            2009,
            2010,
            2011,
            2012,
            2013
          ],
          "values": [
            20.7,
            6.1,
            12.5,
            4.5,
            14.8,
            10.1,
            13.6,
            8.6,
            20.1,
            9.9,
            9.1,
            16.5
          ],
          "sourceLocator": "Table 1; crop seasons2002/03-2013/14, one shared field trial"
        },
        {
          "cultivar": "Fs-17",
          "unit": "tonnes fresh fruit/ha",
          "seasonStartYears": [
            2002,
            2003,
            2004,
            2005,
            2006,
            2007,
            2008,
            2009,
            2010,
            2011,
            2012,
            2013
          ],
          "values": [
            4.4,
            2.8,
            8.8,
            0.7,
            10.9,
            4.6,
            7.8,
            4.0,
            14.4,
            5.1,
            7.2,
            3.8
          ],
          "sourceLocator": "Table 1; crop seasons2002/03-2013/14, one shared field trial"
        }
      ],
      "auditNotes": [
        "All twelve observed Arbequina annual yields are positive, including climatic loss years. This verifies that observed period only, not a future annual probability.",
        "Already used as a development case in earlier atlas revisions; cannot be relabeled a fresh independent holdout."
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "es_cordoba_commercial",
      "name": "Commercial Arbequina orchard, Cordoba, Spain",
      "lat": 37.64889,
      "lng": -4.731579,
      "coordinatePrecisionKm": 2,
      "coordinateProvenance": "Decimal coordinates printed in study; western longitude is negative.",
      "studyCluster": "cordoba_commercial_2015",
      "geographicCluster": "southern_iberia",
      "eligible": true,
      "waterScenario": "irrigated",
      "management": "See primary study; water regime documented separately.",
      "cultivars": [
        "Arbequina"
      ],
      "years": [
        2011,
        2013
      ],
      "harvestYears": 2,
      "observations": "Mature commercial orchard produced 10-12t/ha in both study harvest years; healthy, irrigated, 285 trees/ha. The intervening year was not measured, so uninterrupted annual cropping is not established.",
      "freezeEvidence": null,
      "sources": [
        {
          "title": "Analysis of fruit and oil quantity and quality distribution in high-density olive trees in order to improve the mechanical harvesting process",
          "url": "https://sjar.revistas.csic.es/index.php/sjar/article/download/6513/2390?inline=1",
          "doi": "10.5424/sjar/2015132-6513",
          "locator": "Material and methods: test orchard, seasons and yields"
        }
      ],
      "outcomeClass": "short_measured_production",
      "priorUsed": false,
      "measuredFruitYieldAvailable": true,
      "annualReliabilityStatus": "unknown",
      "futureAnnualHarvestProbability": null,
      "numericSuitabilityTarget": null,
      "sourceReview": "Previously transcribed primary evidence retained; not independently re-extracted in current audit",
      "observedAnnualYieldSeries": null,
      "productionAggregates": [],
      "outcomeSeries": [],
      "use": {
        "independentUnit": "cordoba_commercial_2015",
        "spatialWeightingUnit": "southern_iberia",
        "split": "development_already_discussed",
        "positivePotentialCheck": false,
        "floweringConstraintCheck": false,
        "reliabilityProbabilityTrainingEligible": false,
        "coordinateBonusAllowed": false
      },
      "originalGeographicCluster": "southern_iberia"
    },
    {
      "id": "pt_lombo_cobrancosa",
      "name": "Lombo rainfed Cobrancosa orchard, Portugal",
      "lat": 41.446556,
      "lng": -6.822067,
      "coordinatePrecisionKm": 2,
      "coordinateProvenance": "Exact decimal coordinates printed in section 2.1.",
      "studyCluster": "lombo_2019",
      "geographicCluster": "northeastern_portugal",
      "eligible": true,
      "waterScenario": "rainfed",
      "management": "See primary study; water regime documented separately.",
      "cultivars": [
        "Cobrancosa"
      ],
      "years": [
        2017,
        2018
      ],
      "harvestYears": 2,
      "observations": "18-year-old commercial grove; fruit harvested and weighed in both seasons. Nitrogen treatments altered yields; disease and fruit-fly damage measured. Two seasons cannot establish long-term reliability.",
      "freezeEvidence": null,
      "sources": [
        {
          "title": "The effect of nitrogen fertilization on the incidence of olive fruit fly, olive leaf spot and olive anthracnose in two olive cultivars grown in rainfed conditions",
          "url": "https://bibliotecadigital.ipb.pt/bitstream/10198/20240/1/44.pdf",
          "doi": "10.1016/j.scienta.2019.108658",
          "locator": "Section 2.1, Figure 6; 2017 and 2018 fruit harvests"
        }
      ],
      "outcomeClass": "short_measured_production",
      "priorUsed": false,
      "measuredFruitYieldAvailable": true,
      "annualReliabilityStatus": "unknown",
      "futureAnnualHarvestProbability": null,
      "numericSuitabilityTarget": null,
      "sourceReview": "Previously transcribed primary evidence retained; not independently re-extracted in current audit",
      "observedAnnualYieldSeries": null,
      "productionAggregates": [],
      "outcomeSeries": [],
      "use": {
        "independentUnit": "lombo_2019",
        "spatialWeightingUnit": "northeastern_portugal",
        "split": "study_and_geographic_holdout",
        "positivePotentialCheck": false,
        "floweringConstraintCheck": false,
        "reliabilityProbabilityTrainingEligible": false,
        "coordinateBonusAllowed": false
      },
      "originalGeographicCluster": "northeastern_portugal"
    },
    {
      "id": "pt_lombo_madural",
      "name": "Lombo rainfed Madural orchard, Portugal",
      "lat": 41.457075,
      "lng": -6.832459,
      "coordinatePrecisionKm": 2,
      "coordinateProvenance": "Exact decimal coordinates printed in section 2.1.",
      "studyCluster": "lombo_2019",
      "geographicCluster": "northeastern_portugal",
      "eligible": true,
      "waterScenario": "rainfed",
      "management": "See primary study; water regime documented separately.",
      "cultivars": [
        "Madural"
      ],
      "years": [
        2017,
        2018
      ],
      "harvestYears": 2,
      "observations": "50-year-old commercial grove with two weighed fruit harvests; increased nitrogen increased yield and delayed maturity. Same study and geographic cluster as nearby Cobrancosa plot; not independent climate replication.",
      "freezeEvidence": null,
      "sources": [
        {
          "title": "The effect of nitrogen fertilization on the incidence of olive fruit fly, olive leaf spot and olive anthracnose in two olive cultivars grown in rainfed conditions",
          "url": "https://bibliotecadigital.ipb.pt/bitstream/10198/20240/1/44.pdf",
          "doi": "10.1016/j.scienta.2019.108658",
          "locator": "Section 2.1, Figure 6; 2017 and 2018 fruit harvests"
        }
      ],
      "outcomeClass": "short_measured_production",
      "priorUsed": false,
      "measuredFruitYieldAvailable": true,
      "annualReliabilityStatus": "unknown",
      "futureAnnualHarvestProbability": null,
      "numericSuitabilityTarget": null,
      "sourceReview": "Previously transcribed primary evidence retained; not independently re-extracted in current audit",
      "observedAnnualYieldSeries": null,
      "productionAggregates": [],
      "outcomeSeries": [],
      "use": {
        "independentUnit": "lombo_2019",
        "spatialWeightingUnit": "northeastern_portugal",
        "split": "study_and_geographic_holdout",
        "positivePotentialCheck": false,
        "floweringConstraintCheck": false,
        "reliabilityProbabilityTrainingEligible": false,
        "coordinateBonusAllowed": false
      },
      "originalGeographicCluster": "northeastern_portugal"
    },
    {
      "id": "gr_messinia_ac",
      "name": "Messinia non-calcareous rainfed orchard, Greece",
      "lat": 37.0389675,
      "lng": 21.9130617,
      "coordinatePrecisionKm": 2,
      "coordinateProvenance": "37°02′20.283″N, 21°54′47.022″E; 152m, source section 2.1.",
      "studyCluster": "messinia_2024",
      "geographicCluster": "messinia",
      "eligible": true,
      "waterScenario": "rainfed",
      "management": "See primary study; water regime documented separately.",
      "cultivars": [
        "Koroneiki"
      ],
      "years": [
        2019,
        2020,
        2021
      ],
      "harvestYears": 3,
      "observations": "40-year-old orchard; unfertilized-control cumulative fruit yield 77.40kg/tree over three harvests (25.80 annual mean). Study describes strong alternate bearing; high average production does not establish stable annual crops.",
      "freezeEvidence": null,
      "sources": [
        {
          "title": "Enhancing the Yield of Mature Olive Trees via Comparative Fertilization Strategies, including a Foliar Application with Fulvic and Humic Acids, in Non-Irrigated Orchards with Calcareous and Non-Calcareous Soils",
          "url": "https://mdpi-res.com/d_attachment/horticulturae/horticulturae-10-00167/article_deploy/horticulturae-10-00167.pdf?version=1707714682",
          "doi": "10.3390/horticulturae10020167",
          "locator": "Section 2.1, Table 2, Figures 1-2; Tables 3-8"
        }
      ],
      "outcomeClass": "repeated_measured_production",
      "priorUsed": false,
      "measuredFruitYieldAvailable": true,
      "annualReliabilityStatus": "irregular",
      "futureAnnualHarvestProbability": null,
      "numericSuitabilityTarget": null,
      "sourceReview": "Previously transcribed primary evidence retained; not independently re-extracted in current audit",
      "observedAnnualYieldSeries": null,
      "productionAggregates": [],
      "outcomeSeries": [],
      "use": {
        "independentUnit": "messinia_2024",
        "spatialWeightingUnit": "messinia",
        "split": "study_and_geographic_holdout",
        "positivePotentialCheck": true,
        "floweringConstraintCheck": false,
        "reliabilityProbabilityTrainingEligible": false,
        "coordinateBonusAllowed": false
      },
      "originalGeographicCluster": "messinia"
    },
    {
      "id": "gr_messinia_al",
      "name": "Messinia calcareous rainfed orchard, Greece",
      "lat": 37.0363786,
      "lng": 21.9075306,
      "coordinatePrecisionKm": 2,
      "coordinateProvenance": "37°02′10.963″N, 21°54′27.110″E; 178m, source section 2.1.",
      "studyCluster": "messinia_2024",
      "geographicCluster": "messinia",
      "eligible": true,
      "waterScenario": "rainfed",
      "management": "See primary study; water regime documented separately.",
      "cultivars": [
        "Koroneiki"
      ],
      "years": [
        2019,
        2020,
        2021
      ],
      "harvestYears": 3,
      "observations": "Mature orchard with three annual harvested crops and treatment-dependent yields. Source describes marked alternate bearing. Nearby paired orchard shares climate cluster; poor years are not treated as climatic non-suitability.",
      "freezeEvidence": null,
      "sources": [
        {
          "title": "Enhancing the Yield of Mature Olive Trees via Comparative Fertilization Strategies, including a Foliar Application with Fulvic and Humic Acids, in Non-Irrigated Orchards with Calcareous and Non-Calcareous Soils",
          "url": "https://mdpi-res.com/d_attachment/horticulturae/horticulturae-10-00167/article_deploy/horticulturae-10-00167.pdf?version=1707714682",
          "doi": "10.3390/horticulturae10020167",
          "locator": "Section 2.1, Table 2, Figures 1-2; Tables 3-8"
        }
      ],
      "outcomeClass": "repeated_measured_production",
      "priorUsed": false,
      "measuredFruitYieldAvailable": true,
      "annualReliabilityStatus": "irregular",
      "futureAnnualHarvestProbability": null,
      "numericSuitabilityTarget": null,
      "sourceReview": "Previously transcribed primary evidence retained; not independently re-extracted in current audit",
      "observedAnnualYieldSeries": null,
      "productionAggregates": [],
      "outcomeSeries": [],
      "use": {
        "independentUnit": "messinia_2024",
        "spatialWeightingUnit": "messinia",
        "split": "study_and_geographic_holdout",
        "positivePotentialCheck": true,
        "floweringConstraintCheck": false,
        "reliabilityProbabilityTrainingEligible": false,
        "coordinateBonusAllowed": false
      },
      "originalGeographicCluster": "messinia"
    },
    {
      "id": "it_sicily_arbequina",
      "name": "Sicily Arbequina high-density trial, Italy",
      "lat": 37.7666667,
      "lng": 12.5,
      "coordinatePrecisionKm": 2,
      "coordinateProvenance": "37°46′N, 12°30′E; 160m, Table 1 (minute precision).",
      "studyCluster": "italy_2014",
      "geographicCluster": "italian_trials",
      "eligible": true,
      "waterScenario": "irrigated",
      "management": "See primary study; water regime documented separately.",
      "cultivars": [
        "Arbequina"
      ],
      "years": [
        2010,
        2011
      ],
      "harvestYears": 2,
      "observations": "Trial planted 2005. Fruit and chemically/sensorially assessed oil harvested both years. Main comparison covers only 2010 and 2011; earlier age-yield discussion is not counted as an independently verified annual series.",
      "freezeEvidence": null,
      "sources": [
        {
          "title": "Growth and Yields of Arbequina High-Density Planting Systems in Three Different Olive Growing Areas in Italy",
          "url": "https://iris.unipa.it/bitstream/10447/102669/1/Argentina_collegiale.pdf",
          "recordUrl": "https://research.unipg.it/handle/11391/1328110",
          "locator": "Materials and methods, Table 1 and yield discussion; main field measurements in 2010 and 2011"
        }
      ],
      "outcomeClass": "short_measured_production",
      "priorUsed": false,
      "measuredFruitYieldAvailable": true,
      "annualReliabilityStatus": "unknown",
      "futureAnnualHarvestProbability": null,
      "numericSuitabilityTarget": null,
      "sourceReview": "Previously transcribed primary evidence retained; not independently re-extracted in current audit",
      "observedAnnualYieldSeries": null,
      "productionAggregates": [],
      "outcomeSeries": [],
      "use": {
        "independentUnit": "italy_2014",
        "spatialWeightingUnit": "italian_trials",
        "split": "development_already_discussed",
        "positivePotentialCheck": false,
        "floweringConstraintCheck": false,
        "reliabilityProbabilityTrainingEligible": false,
        "coordinateBonusAllowed": false
      },
      "originalGeographicCluster": "italian_trials"
    },
    {
      "id": "it_apulia_arbequina",
      "name": "Apulia Arbequina high-density trial, Italy",
      "lat": 41.0166667,
      "lng": 16.75,
      "coordinatePrecisionKm": 2,
      "coordinateProvenance": "41°01′N, 16°45′E; 110m, Table 1 (minute precision).",
      "studyCluster": "italy_2014",
      "geographicCluster": "italian_trials",
      "eligible": true,
      "waterScenario": "irrigated",
      "management": "See primary study; water regime documented separately.",
      "cultivars": [
        "Arbequina"
      ],
      "years": [
        2010,
        2011
      ],
      "harvestYears": 2,
      "observations": "Planted 2006; two harvest seasons, comparable yield to Sicily and successful oil extraction/quality assessment. Same study cluster as Sicily and Umbria.",
      "freezeEvidence": null,
      "sources": [
        {
          "title": "Growth and Yields of Arbequina High-Density Planting Systems in Three Different Olive Growing Areas in Italy",
          "url": "https://iris.unipa.it/bitstream/10447/102669/1/Argentina_collegiale.pdf",
          "recordUrl": "https://research.unipg.it/handle/11391/1328110",
          "locator": "Materials and methods, Table 1 and yield discussion; main field measurements in 2010 and 2011"
        }
      ],
      "outcomeClass": "short_measured_production",
      "priorUsed": false,
      "measuredFruitYieldAvailable": true,
      "annualReliabilityStatus": "unknown",
      "futureAnnualHarvestProbability": null,
      "numericSuitabilityTarget": null,
      "sourceReview": "Previously transcribed primary evidence retained; not independently re-extracted in current audit",
      "observedAnnualYieldSeries": null,
      "productionAggregates": [],
      "outcomeSeries": [],
      "use": {
        "independentUnit": "italy_2014",
        "spatialWeightingUnit": "italian_trials",
        "split": "development_already_discussed",
        "positivePotentialCheck": false,
        "floweringConstraintCheck": false,
        "reliabilityProbabilityTrainingEligible": false,
        "coordinateBonusAllowed": false
      },
      "originalGeographicCluster": "italian_trials"
    },
    {
      "id": "it_umbria_arbequina",
      "name": "Umbria Arbequina high-density trial, Italy",
      "lat": 42.95,
      "lng": 12.4166667,
      "coordinatePrecisionKm": 2,
      "coordinateProvenance": "42°57′N, 12°25′E; 350m, Table 1 (minute precision).",
      "studyCluster": "italy_2014",
      "geographicCluster": "italian_trials",
      "eligible": true,
      "waterScenario": "irrigated",
      "management": "See primary study; water regime documented separately.",
      "cultivars": [
        "Arbequina"
      ],
      "years": [
        2010,
        2011
      ],
      "harvestYears": 2,
      "observations": "Planted 2006. Successful edible-oil harvests but lower production than warmer trial sites; study attributes slower growth to shorter growing season. This is a production constraint, not a tree-presence record.",
      "freezeEvidence": null,
      "sources": [
        {
          "title": "Growth and Yields of Arbequina High-Density Planting Systems in Three Different Olive Growing Areas in Italy",
          "url": "https://iris.unipa.it/bitstream/10447/102669/1/Argentina_collegiale.pdf",
          "recordUrl": "https://research.unipg.it/handle/11391/1328110",
          "locator": "Materials and methods, Table 1 and yield discussion; main field measurements in 2010 and 2011"
        }
      ],
      "outcomeClass": "short_measured_production",
      "priorUsed": false,
      "measuredFruitYieldAvailable": true,
      "annualReliabilityStatus": "irregular",
      "futureAnnualHarvestProbability": null,
      "numericSuitabilityTarget": null,
      "sourceReview": "Previously transcribed primary evidence retained; not independently re-extracted in current audit",
      "observedAnnualYieldSeries": null,
      "productionAggregates": [],
      "outcomeSeries": [],
      "use": {
        "independentUnit": "italy_2014",
        "spatialWeightingUnit": "italian_trials",
        "split": "development_already_discussed",
        "positivePotentialCheck": false,
        "floweringConstraintCheck": false,
        "reliabilityProbabilityTrainingEligible": false,
        "coordinateBonusAllowed": false
      },
      "originalGeographicCluster": "italian_trials"
    },
    {
      "id": "it_maiolati_freeze",
      "name": "Maiolati Spontini frost-damage orchard, Italy",
      "lat": 43.4769444,
      "lng": 13.1191667,
      "coordinatePrecisionKm": 2,
      "coordinateProvenance": "43°28′37″N, 13°07′09″E; 405m, section 2.1.",
      "studyCluster": "maiolati_2016",
      "geographicCluster": "italian_trials",
      "eligible": true,
      "waterScenario": "rainfed",
      "management": "See primary study; water regime documented separately.",
      "cultivars": [
        "Arbequina",
        "FS17",
        "Ascolana dura",
        "Orbetana",
        "Mignolone",
        "19 other cultivated varieties"
      ],
      "years": [
        2012,
        2013
      ],
      "harvestYears": 0,
      "observations": "Three-year-old orchard; 20 trees/cultivar assessed. Arbequina, FS17, Raggia and Sargano di San Benedetto completely defoliated; Arbequina/FS17 later regenerated mainly from trunk base. No yield series measured.",
      "freezeEvidence": {
        "eventYear": 2012,
        "absoluteMinimumC": -6.4,
        "episodeDays": 12,
        "episodeMeanMinimumC": -4.7,
        "precedingWarmDecadeMeanMinimumC": 6.5,
        "interpretation": "Duration and deacclimation matter; annual extreme minimum alone cannot reproduce damage severity."
      },
      "sources": [
        {
          "title": "Frost tolerance of 24 olive cultivars and subsequent vegetative re-sprouting as indication of recovery ability",
          "url": "https://www.d3a.univpm.it/sites/www.d3a.univpm.it/files/d3a/Lavori%20scientifici/001%20-%20Lodolini%20et%20al%202016%20-%20SCI%20HORTIC-AMSTERDAM%20-%20211%20-%20152-157.pdf",
          "locator": "pp.153-156, study site, weather episode, defoliation and regrowth results"
        }
      ],
      "outcomeClass": "freeze_damage_challenge",
      "priorUsed": false,
      "measuredFruitYieldAvailable": false,
      "annualReliabilityStatus": "unproven_freeze_affected",
      "futureAnnualHarvestProbability": null,
      "numericSuitabilityTarget": null,
      "sourceReview": "Previously transcribed primary evidence retained; not independently re-extracted in current audit",
      "observedAnnualYieldSeries": null,
      "productionAggregates": [],
      "outcomeSeries": [],
      "use": {
        "independentUnit": "maiolati_2016",
        "spatialWeightingUnit": "italian_trials",
        "split": "development_already_discussed",
        "positivePotentialCheck": false,
        "floweringConstraintCheck": false,
        "reliabilityProbabilityTrainingEligible": false,
        "coordinateBonusAllowed": false
      },
      "originalGeographicCluster": "italian_trials"
    },
    {
      "id": "tn_taous_ennwader",
      "name": "Taous comparative cultivated-olive trial, Tunisia",
      "lat": 34.9333333,
      "lng": 10.6,
      "coordinatePrecisionKm": 2,
      "coordinateProvenance": "34°56′N, 10°36′E printed for Taous; minute precision, not a precise tree location.",
      "studyCluster": "taous_2019",
      "geographicCluster": "sfax_tunisia",
      "eligible": true,
      "waterScenario": "irrigated",
      "management": "Irrigated and fertilized comparative trial planted2005; three observed trees of the new cultivar.",
      "cultivars": [
        "Zeitoun Ennwader"
      ],
      "years": [
        2007,
        2008,
        2009,
        2010,
        2011,
        2012,
        2013,
        2014,
        2015
      ],
      "harvestYears": 9,
      "observations": "Comparative orchard planted 2005; three trees observed 2007-2015. High yield and low alternate bearing reported categorically; annual numeric yield values not published. Irrigation and fertilization stated. Do not substitute high categorical yield with invented tonnage.",
      "freezeEvidence": null,
      "sources": [
        {
          "title": "Zeitoun Ennwader: A new olive oil cultivar in Tunisia with high oil quality and low alternate bearing",
          "url": "https://www.agrimaroc.org/index.php/Actes_IAVH2/article/download/766/918/2434",
          "recordUrl": "https://www.agrimaroc.org/index.php/Actes_IAVH2/article/view/766",
          "locator": "pp.523-525, experimental site; 2007-2015 production observations and Table 2"
        }
      ],
      "outcomeClass": "repeated_categorical_production",
      "priorUsed": false,
      "measuredFruitYieldAvailable": false,
      "annualReliabilityStatus": "reported_low_alternate_bearing",
      "futureAnnualHarvestProbability": null,
      "numericSuitabilityTarget": null,
      "sourceReview": "Primary source re-opened in current audit",
      "observedAnnualYieldSeries": null,
      "productionAggregates": [
        {
          "cultivar": "Zeitoun Ennwader",
          "measure": "yield category",
          "value": "high",
          "years": [
            2007,
            2008,
            2009,
            2010,
            2011,
            2012,
            2013,
            2014,
            2015
          ],
          "sourceLocator": "Methods and Table2, pp523-524"
        },
        {
          "cultivar": "Zeitoun Ennwader",
          "measure": "alternate bearing category",
          "value": "low",
          "years": [
            2007,
            2008,
            2009,
            2010,
            2011,
            2012,
            2013,
            2014,
            2015
          ],
          "sourceLocator": "Methods and Table2, pp523-524"
        }
      ],
      "outcomeSeries": [],
      "use": {
        "independentUnit": "taous_2019",
        "spatialWeightingUnit": "sfax_tunisia",
        "split": "study_and_geographic_holdout",
        "positivePotentialCheck": true,
        "floweringConstraintCheck": false,
        "reliabilityProbabilityTrainingEligible": false,
        "coordinateBonusAllowed": false
      },
      "originalGeographicCluster": "sfax_tunisia",
      "auditNotes": [
        "Published annual mean production and ABI were categorized by IOC norms; numeric annual yield or ABI values are not supplied.",
        "This is qualitative repeated-production evidence, not nine observed positive numeric harvests and not a yield-probability target."
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "au_roseworthy_nova",
      "name": "Roseworthy NOVA cultivated variety collection, South Australia",
      "lat": -34.52,
      "lng": 138.68,
      "coordinatePrecisionKm": 2,
      "coordinateProvenance": "Decimal coordinates in Adelaide thesis section 2.2 describing the same NOVA collection; elevation 68m.",
      "studyCluster": "nova_2005",
      "geographicCluster": "south_australia",
      "eligible": true,
      "waterScenario": "irrigated",
      "management": "Drip-irrigated NOVA collection, irrigation monitored with soil moisture; two planting cohorts and nursery-material differences. Bird netting used for Koroneiki in 2004.",
      "cultivars": [
        "Picual",
        "Barnea",
        "Arbequina",
        "Hojiblanca",
        "Manzanilla de Sevilla",
        "others"
      ],
      "years": [
        2002,
        2003,
        2004
      ],
      "harvestYears": 3,
      "observations": "Replicated cultivated varieties, many DNA-verified; fruit weighed three years. Picual, Barnea and Arbequina among early productive cultivars. Irrigated using soil-moisture monitoring. Table 9 uses age-adjusted relative yields, including negatives; those cannot be presented as actual harvest weights.",
      "freezeEvidence": null,
      "sources": [
        {
          "title": "National Olive Variety Assessment (NOVA), Stage 2, RIRDC 05/155",
          "url": "https://www.floridaolive.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Australian-Olive-Variety-Assesment-stage2-1.pdf",
          "publisherUrl": "https://agrifutures.com.au/wp-content/uploads/publications/05-155.pdf",
          "locator": "pp.20-23 and 45: 2002-2004 fruit yield; Table 9 is age-adjusted relative yield, not actual harvest mass"
        },
        {
          "title": "University of Adelaide thesis, chapter 2: Orchard layout, plant materials, and climatic recordings",
          "url": "https://digital.library.adelaide.edu.au/dspace/bitstream/2440/57515/8/02whole.pdf",
          "locator": "Section 2.2: NOVA collection at Roseworthy; printed decimal coordinates, irrigation"
        }
      ],
      "outcomeClass": "repeated_measured_production",
      "priorUsed": false,
      "measuredFruitYieldAvailable": true,
      "annualReliabilityStatus": "young_orchard_unknown_mature_reliability",
      "futureAnnualHarvestProbability": null,
      "numericSuitabilityTarget": null,
      "sourceReview": "Primary source re-opened in current audit",
      "observedAnnualYieldSeries": null,
      "productionAggregates": [
        {
          "cultivar": "Arbequina",
          "measure": "unadjusted mean annual fruit yield",
          "value": 11.6,
          "unit": "kg fruit/tree",
          "year": 2004,
          "sourceLocator": "NOVA Stage2 Table10, printed p22 (PDF35), StageI trees only"
        },
        {
          "cultivar": "Picual",
          "measure": "unadjusted mean annual fruit yield",
          "value": 11.8,
          "unit": "kg fruit/tree",
          "year": 2004,
          "sourceLocator": "NOVA Stage2 Table10, printed p22 (PDF35), StageI trees only"
        },
        {
          "cultivar": "Koroneiki",
          "measure": "unadjusted mean annual fruit yield",
          "value": 13.0,
          "unit": "kg fruit/tree",
          "year": 2004,
          "sourceLocator": "NOVA Stage2 Table10, printed p22 (PDF35), StageI trees only"
        },
        {
          "cultivar": "Barnea",
          "measure": "unadjusted mean annual fruit yield",
          "value": 10.9,
          "unit": "kg fruit/tree",
          "year": 2004,
          "sourceLocator": "NOVA Stage2 Table10, printed p22 (PDF35), StageI trees only"
        },
        {
          "cultivar": "Hojiblanca",
          "measure": "unadjusted mean annual fruit yield",
          "value": 17.2,
          "unit": "kg fruit/tree",
          "year": 2004,
          "sourceLocator": "NOVA Stage2 Table10, printed p22 (PDF35), StageI trees only"
        },
        {
          "cultivar": "Manzanilla de Sevilla",
          "measure": "unadjusted mean annual fruit yield",
          "value": 8.7,
          "unit": "kg fruit/tree",
          "year": 2004,
          "sourceLocator": "NOVA Stage2 Table10, printed p22 (PDF35), StageI trees only"
        },
        {
          "cultivar": "Frantoio",
          "measure": "unadjusted mean annual fruit yield",
          "value": 6.4,
          "unit": "kg fruit/tree",
          "year": 2004,
          "sourceLocator": "NOVA Stage2 Table10, printed p22 (PDF35), StageI trees only"
        },
        {
          "cultivar": "Leccino",
          "measure": "unadjusted mean annual fruit yield",
          "value": 15.2,
          "unit": "kg fruit/tree",
          "year": 2004,
          "sourceLocator": "NOVA Stage2 Table10, printed p22 (PDF35), StageI trees only"
        }
      ],
      "outcomeSeries": [],
      "use": {
        "independentUnit": "nova_2005",
        "spatialWeightingUnit": "south_australia",
        "split": "development_already_discussed",
        "positivePotentialCheck": true,
        "floweringConstraintCheck": false,
        "reliabilityProbabilityTrainingEligible": false,
        "coordinateBonusAllowed": false
      },
      "originalGeographicCluster": "south_australia",
      "auditNotes": [
        "NOVA Table9 three-year values are adjusted relative yields, including negative adjustments; they are not raw annual kg/tree and are excluded from observedAnnualYieldSeries.",
        "Table10 contains actual unadjusted 2004 mean yield for StageI plantings. This one-year subset cannot establish annual reliability.",
        "Young trees and establishment/nursery effects dominate early growth; do not use poor early cultivars as general climatic negatives.",
        "Koroneiki 2002/03 crop was lost to birds. That is not insufficient chill or cold injury."
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "uy-las-brujas",
      "name": "INIA Las Brujas, Uruguay",
      "lat": -34.666667,
      "lng": -56.333333,
      "coordinatePrecisionKm": 2,
      "coordinateProvenance": "Paper reports station coordinate 34°40′S 56°20′W.",
      "studyCluster": "conde-innamorato-2019",
      "geographicCluster": "uruguay_humid_temperate",
      "eligible": true,
      "waterScenario": "irrigated",
      "management": "Drip irrigation 100% ETc; raised beds; 4–6 preventive/disease-control sprays per season.",
      "cultivars": [
        "Arbequina",
        "Picual",
        "Frantoio",
        "Leccino",
        "Manzanilla de Sevilla",
        "Barnea"
      ],
      "years": [
        2010,
        2011,
        2012,
        2013,
        2014,
        2015,
        2016,
        2017
      ],
      "harvestYears": 8,
      "observations": "Average fruit yield: Arbequina 11.1, Picual 11.3 t/ha/year. Pronounced alternate bearing; 2013 near-zero except Barnea. All cultivar ABI values above 0.58.",
      "freezeEvidence": null,
      "sources": [
        {
          "title": "It Is Feasible to Produce Olive Oil in Temperate Humid Climate Regions",
          "url": "https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/plant-science/articles/10.3389/fpls.2019.01544/full",
          "doi": "10.3389/fpls.2019.01544",
          "locator": "Methods; Figure 3; Tables 5–6"
        }
      ],
      "outcomeClass": "repeated_measured_production",
      "priorUsed": false,
      "measuredFruitYieldAvailable": true,
      "annualReliabilityStatus": "variable",
      "futureAnnualHarvestProbability": null,
      "numericSuitabilityTarget": null,
      "sourceReview": "Primary source re-opened in current audit",
      "observedAnnualYieldSeries": null,
      "productionAggregates": [
        {
          "cultivar": "Arbequina",
          "measure": "mean fruit yield",
          "value": 11.1,
          "unit": "tonnes fruit/ha/year",
          "years": [
            2010,
            2011,
            2012,
            2013,
            2014,
            2015,
            2016,
            2017
          ],
          "sourceLocator": "Table 6, including on and off years"
        },
        {
          "cultivar": "Picual",
          "measure": "mean fruit yield",
          "value": 11.3,
          "unit": "tonnes fruit/ha/year",
          "years": [
            2010,
            2011,
            2012,
            2013,
            2014,
            2015,
            2016,
            2017
          ],
          "sourceLocator": "Table 6, including on and off years"
        },
        {
          "cultivar": "Frantoio",
          "measure": "mean fruit yield",
          "value": 10.1,
          "unit": "tonnes fruit/ha/year",
          "years": [
            2010,
            2011,
            2012,
            2013,
            2014,
            2015,
            2016,
            2017
          ],
          "sourceLocator": "Table 6, including on and off years"
        },
        {
          "cultivar": "Leccino",
          "measure": "mean fruit yield",
          "value": 8.6,
          "unit": "tonnes fruit/ha/year",
          "years": [
            2010,
            2011,
            2012,
            2013,
            2014,
            2015,
            2016,
            2017
          ],
          "sourceLocator": "Table 6, including on and off years"
        },
        {
          "cultivar": "Manzanilla de Sevilla",
          "measure": "mean fruit yield",
          "value": 9.1,
          "unit": "tonnes fruit/ha/year",
          "years": [
            2010,
            2011,
            2012,
            2013,
            2014,
            2015,
            2016,
            2017
          ],
          "sourceLocator": "Table 6, including on and off years"
        },
        {
          "cultivar": "Barnea",
          "measure": "mean fruit yield",
          "value": 5.0,
          "unit": "tonnes fruit/ha/year",
          "years": [
            2010,
            2011,
            2012,
            2013,
            2014,
            2015,
            2016,
            2017
          ],
          "sourceLocator": "Table 6, including on and off years"
        },
        {
          "cultivar": "Leccino",
          "measure": "alternate bearing index",
          "value": 0.63,
          "unit": "index 0-1",
          "years": [
            2010,
            2011,
            2012,
            2013,
            2014,
            2015,
            2016,
            2017
          ],
          "sourceLocator": "Table 5; all years, not on-year productive efficiency"
        },
        {
          "cultivar": "Frantoio",
          "measure": "alternate bearing index",
          "value": 0.6,
          "unit": "index 0-1",
          "years": [
            2010,
            2011,
            2012,
            2013,
            2014,
            2015,
            2016,
            2017
          ],
          "sourceLocator": "Table 5; all years, not on-year productive efficiency"
        },
        {
          "cultivar": "Picual",
          "measure": "alternate bearing index",
          "value": 0.6,
          "unit": "index 0-1",
          "years": [
            2010,
            2011,
            2012,
            2013,
            2014,
            2015,
            2016,
            2017
          ],
          "sourceLocator": "Table 5; all years, not on-year productive efficiency"
        },
        {
          "cultivar": "Manzanilla de Sevilla",
          "measure": "alternate bearing index",
          "value": 0.67,
          "unit": "index 0-1",
          "years": [
            2010,
            2011,
            2012,
            2013,
            2014,
            2015,
            2016,
            2017
          ],
          "sourceLocator": "Table 5; all years, not on-year productive efficiency"
        },
        {
          "cultivar": "Arbequina",
          "measure": "alternate bearing index",
          "value": 0.59,
          "unit": "index 0-1",
          "years": [
            2010,
            2011,
            2012,
            2013,
            2014,
            2015,
            2016,
            2017
          ],
          "sourceLocator": "Table 5; all years, not on-year productive efficiency"
        },
        {
          "cultivar": "Barnea",
          "measure": "alternate bearing index",
          "value": 0.81,
          "unit": "index 0-1",
          "years": [
            2010,
            2011,
            2012,
            2013,
            2014,
            2015,
            2016,
            2017
          ],
          "sourceLocator": "Table 5; all years, not on-year productive efficiency"
        }
      ],
      "outcomeSeries": [
        {
          "cultivar": "Arbequina",
          "year": 2013,
          "measure": "fruit yield",
          "value": 0.0,
          "unit": "tonnes fruit/ha",
          "sourceLocator": "Results, productive parameters narrative following Figure 3"
        },
        {
          "cultivar": "Picual",
          "year": 2013,
          "measure": "fruit yield",
          "value": 0.0,
          "unit": "tonnes fruit/ha",
          "sourceLocator": "Results, productive parameters narrative following Figure 3"
        },
        {
          "cultivar": "Frantoio",
          "year": 2013,
          "measure": "fruit yield",
          "value": 0.0,
          "unit": "tonnes fruit/ha",
          "sourceLocator": "Results, productive parameters narrative following Figure 3"
        },
        {
          "cultivar": "Leccino",
          "year": 2013,
          "measure": "fruit yield",
          "value": 0.0,
          "unit": "tonnes fruit/ha",
          "sourceLocator": "Results, productive parameters narrative following Figure 3"
        },
        {
          "cultivar": "Manzanilla de Sevilla",
          "year": 2013,
          "measure": "fruit yield",
          "value": 0.0,
          "unit": "tonnes fruit/ha",
          "sourceLocator": "Results, productive parameters narrative following Figure 3"
        },
        {
          "cultivar": "Barnea",
          "year": 2013,
          "measure": "fruit yield",
          "value": 1.6,
          "unit": "tonnes fruit/ha",
          "sourceLocator": "Results, productive parameters narrative following Figure 3"
        }
      ],
      "use": {
        "independentUnit": "conde-innamorato-2019",
        "spatialWeightingUnit": "uruguay_humid_temperate",
        "split": "study_and_geographic_holdout",
        "positivePotentialCheck": true,
        "floweringConstraintCheck": false,
        "reliabilityProbabilityTrainingEligible": false,
        "coordinateBonusAllowed": false
      },
      "originalGeographicCluster": "conde-innamorato-2019",
      "auditNotes": [
        "Mean/cumulative yield and a documented zero year are published, but the eight exact annual values are not supplied as a numeric table. Do not reconstruct them from averages or alternate-bearing indices.",
        "The paper labels Figure 3 cumulative yield. Do not digitize that as annual yield.",
        "Both sites share one study; reserve both together. Irrigation, drainage and 4-6 disease-control sprays/season are part of the observed production system.",
        "The paper reports yield variability and climatic effects on flowering/pollination. Alternate bearing alone cannot identify climate-caused failure in any individual year."
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "uy-salto-grande",
      "name": "INIA Salto Grande, Uruguay",
      "lat": -31.266667,
      "lng": -57.883333,
      "coordinatePrecisionKm": 2,
      "coordinateProvenance": "Paper reports station coordinate 31°16′S 57°53′W.",
      "studyCluster": "conde-innamorato-2019",
      "geographicCluster": "uruguay_humid_temperate",
      "eligible": true,
      "waterScenario": "irrigated",
      "management": "Drip irrigation 100% ETc; freely drained soil; 4–6 disease-control sprays per season.",
      "cultivars": [
        "Arbequina",
        "Picual",
        "Manzanilla de Sevilla",
        "Frantoio"
      ],
      "years": [
        2010,
        2011,
        2012,
        2013,
        2014,
        2015,
        2016,
        2017
      ],
      "harvestYears": 8,
      "observations": "Average fruit yield Arbequina and Picual each 7.9 t/ha/year; Frantoio 2.3. High interannual variability.",
      "freezeEvidence": null,
      "sources": [
        {
          "title": "It Is Feasible to Produce Olive Oil in Temperate Humid Climate Regions",
          "url": "https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/plant-science/articles/10.3389/fpls.2019.01544/full",
          "doi": "10.3389/fpls.2019.01544",
          "locator": "Methods; Figure 3; Table 6"
        }
      ],
      "outcomeClass": "repeated_measured_production",
      "priorUsed": false,
      "measuredFruitYieldAvailable": true,
      "annualReliabilityStatus": "variable",
      "futureAnnualHarvestProbability": null,
      "numericSuitabilityTarget": null,
      "sourceReview": "Primary source re-opened in current audit",
      "observedAnnualYieldSeries": null,
      "productionAggregates": [
        {
          "cultivar": "Arbequina",
          "measure": "mean fruit yield",
          "value": 7.9,
          "unit": "tonnes fruit/ha/year",
          "years": [
            2010,
            2011,
            2012,
            2013,
            2014,
            2015,
            2016,
            2017
          ],
          "sourceLocator": "Table 6, including on and off years"
        },
        {
          "cultivar": "Picual",
          "measure": "mean fruit yield",
          "value": 7.9,
          "unit": "tonnes fruit/ha/year",
          "years": [
            2010,
            2011,
            2012,
            2013,
            2014,
            2015,
            2016,
            2017
          ],
          "sourceLocator": "Table 6, including on and off years"
        },
        {
          "cultivar": "Frantoio",
          "measure": "mean fruit yield",
          "value": 2.3,
          "unit": "tonnes fruit/ha/year",
          "years": [
            2010,
            2011,
            2012,
            2013,
            2014,
            2015,
            2016,
            2017
          ],
          "sourceLocator": "Table 6, including on and off years"
        },
        {
          "cultivar": "Manzanilla de Sevilla",
          "measure": "mean fruit yield",
          "value": 5.1,
          "unit": "tonnes fruit/ha/year",
          "years": [
            2010,
            2011,
            2012,
            2013,
            2014,
            2015,
            2016,
            2017
          ],
          "sourceLocator": "Table 6, including on and off years"
        }
      ],
      "outcomeSeries": [
        {
          "cultivar": "Arbequina",
          "year": 2013,
          "measure": "fruit yield",
          "value": 0.0,
          "unit": "tonnes fruit/ha",
          "sourceLocator": "Results, productive parameters narrative following Figure 3"
        },
        {
          "cultivar": "Picual",
          "year": 2013,
          "measure": "fruit yield",
          "value": 0.0,
          "unit": "tonnes fruit/ha",
          "sourceLocator": "Results, productive parameters narrative following Figure 3"
        },
        {
          "cultivar": "Frantoio",
          "year": 2013,
          "measure": "fruit yield",
          "value": 0.0,
          "unit": "tonnes fruit/ha",
          "sourceLocator": "Results, productive parameters narrative following Figure 3"
        },
        {
          "cultivar": "Manzanilla de Sevilla",
          "year": 2013,
          "measure": "fruit yield",
          "value": 0.0,
          "unit": "tonnes fruit/ha",
          "sourceLocator": "Results, productive parameters narrative following Figure 3"
        }
      ],
      "use": {
        "independentUnit": "conde-innamorato-2019",
        "spatialWeightingUnit": "uruguay_humid_temperate",
        "split": "study_and_geographic_holdout",
        "positivePotentialCheck": true,
        "floweringConstraintCheck": false,
        "reliabilityProbabilityTrainingEligible": false,
        "coordinateBonusAllowed": false
      },
      "originalGeographicCluster": "conde-innamorato-2019",
      "auditNotes": [
        "Mean/cumulative yield and a documented zero year are published, but the eight exact annual values are not supplied as a numeric table. Do not reconstruct them from averages or alternate-bearing indices.",
        "The paper labels Figure 3 cumulative yield. Do not digitize that as annual yield.",
        "Both sites share one study; reserve both together. Irrigation, drainage and 4-6 disease-control sprays/season are part of the observed production system.",
        "The paper reports yield variability and climatic effects on flowering/pollination. Alternate bearing alone cannot identify climate-caused failure in any individual year."
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "cl-huasco-inia",
      "name": "INIA Huasco Experimental Station, Vallenar, Chile",
      "lat": -28.566667,
      "lng": -70.783333,
      "coordinatePrecisionKm": 2,
      "coordinateProvenance": "Paper reports experiment coordinate 28°34′S 70°47′W.",
      "studyCluster": "tapia-2009",
      "geographicCluster": "northern_chile",
      "eligible": true,
      "waterScenario": "irrigated",
      "management": "Drip irrigation averaging 8000 m³/ha/year; two copper applications for leaf spot; 29 cultivars, 5–7 trees each.",
      "cultivars": [
        "Arbequina",
        "Picholine",
        "Manzanilla Racimo",
        "Picual",
        "Manzanilla de Sevilla",
        "Frantoio",
        "Ascolana Huasco",
        "Leccino"
      ],
      "years": [
        2003,
        2004,
        2005,
        2006,
        2007
      ],
      "harvestYears": 5,
      "observations": "Five-year mean fruit production 37.37 kg/tree; cumulative about 186 kg/tree. Trial-average alternate bearing index 0.52; selected cultivars combined productivity and lower alternation.",
      "freezeEvidence": null,
      "sources": [
        {
          "title": "Preliminary Evaluation of 29 Olive Cultivars for Production and Alternate Bearing, Huasco Valley",
          "url": "https://www.scielo.cl/scielo.php?lng=p&nrm=iso&pid=S0718-58392009000300004&script=sci_arttext&tlng=p",
          "locator": "Materials and methods; abstract; 2003–2007 production"
        }
      ],
      "outcomeClass": "repeated_measured_production",
      "priorUsed": false,
      "measuredFruitYieldAvailable": true,
      "annualReliabilityStatus": "variable",
      "futureAnnualHarvestProbability": null,
      "numericSuitabilityTarget": null,
      "sourceReview": "Primary source re-opened in current audit",
      "observedAnnualYieldSeries": null,
      "productionAggregates": [
        {
          "cultivar": "Arbequina",
          "measure": "longitudinal mean fruit production",
          "value": 58.8,
          "unit": "kg fruit/tree/year",
          "years": [
            2003,
            2004,
            2005,
            2006,
            2007
          ],
          "sourceLocator": "Table 3, journal p329 (PDF5)"
        },
        {
          "cultivar": "Arbequina",
          "measure": "cumulative fruit production",
          "value": 291.7,
          "unit": "kg fruit/tree",
          "years": [
            2003,
            2004,
            2005,
            2006,
            2007
          ],
          "sourceLocator": "Table 3, journal p329 (PDF5)"
        },
        {
          "cultivar": "Arbequina",
          "measure": "alternate bearing index",
          "value": 0.28,
          "unit": "index 0-1",
          "years": [
            2003,
            2004,
            2005,
            2006,
            2007
          ],
          "sourceLocator": "Table 3, journal p329 (PDF5)"
        },
        {
          "cultivar": "Picholine",
          "measure": "longitudinal mean fruit production",
          "value": 61.3,
          "unit": "kg fruit/tree/year",
          "years": [
            2003,
            2004,
            2005,
            2006,
            2007
          ],
          "sourceLocator": "Table 3, journal p329 (PDF5)"
        },
        {
          "cultivar": "Picholine",
          "measure": "cumulative fruit production",
          "value": 303.8,
          "unit": "kg fruit/tree",
          "years": [
            2003,
            2004,
            2005,
            2006,
            2007
          ],
          "sourceLocator": "Table 3, journal p329 (PDF5)"
        },
        {
          "cultivar": "Picholine",
          "measure": "alternate bearing index",
          "value": 0.35,
          "unit": "index 0-1",
          "years": [
            2003,
            2004,
            2005,
            2006,
            2007
          ],
          "sourceLocator": "Table 3, journal p329 (PDF5)"
        },
        {
          "cultivar": "Manzanilla Racimo",
          "measure": "longitudinal mean fruit production",
          "value": 53.4,
          "unit": "kg fruit/tree/year",
          "years": [
            2003,
            2004,
            2005,
            2006,
            2007
          ],
          "sourceLocator": "Table 3, journal p329 (PDF5)"
        },
        {
          "cultivar": "Manzanilla Racimo",
          "measure": "cumulative fruit production",
          "value": 264.7,
          "unit": "kg fruit/tree",
          "years": [
            2003,
            2004,
            2005,
            2006,
            2007
          ],
          "sourceLocator": "Table 3, journal p329 (PDF5)"
        },
        {
          "cultivar": "Manzanilla Racimo",
          "measure": "alternate bearing index",
          "value": 0.36,
          "unit": "index 0-1",
          "years": [
            2003,
            2004,
            2005,
            2006,
            2007
          ],
          "sourceLocator": "Table 3, journal p329 (PDF5)"
        },
        {
          "cultivar": "Picual",
          "measure": "longitudinal mean fruit production",
          "value": 57.4,
          "unit": "kg fruit/tree/year",
          "years": [
            2003,
            2004,
            2005,
            2006,
            2007
          ],
          "sourceLocator": "Table 3, journal p329 (PDF5)"
        },
        {
          "cultivar": "Picual",
          "measure": "cumulative fruit production",
          "value": 284.6,
          "unit": "kg fruit/tree",
          "years": [
            2003,
            2004,
            2005,
            2006,
            2007
          ],
          "sourceLocator": "Table 3, journal p329 (PDF5)"
        },
        {
          "cultivar": "Picual",
          "measure": "alternate bearing index",
          "value": 0.38,
          "unit": "index 0-1",
          "years": [
            2003,
            2004,
            2005,
            2006,
            2007
          ],
          "sourceLocator": "Table 3, journal p329 (PDF5)"
        },
        {
          "cultivar": "Manzanilla de Sevilla",
          "measure": "longitudinal mean fruit production",
          "value": 45.1,
          "unit": "kg fruit/tree/year",
          "years": [
            2003,
            2004,
            2005,
            2006,
            2007
          ],
          "sourceLocator": "Table 3, journal p329 (PDF5)"
        },
        {
          "cultivar": "Manzanilla de Sevilla",
          "measure": "cumulative fruit production",
          "value": 222.8,
          "unit": "kg fruit/tree",
          "years": [
            2003,
            2004,
            2005,
            2006,
            2007
          ],
          "sourceLocator": "Table 3, journal p329 (PDF5)"
        },
        {
          "cultivar": "Manzanilla de Sevilla",
          "measure": "alternate bearing index",
          "value": 0.39,
          "unit": "index 0-1",
          "years": [
            2003,
            2004,
            2005,
            2006,
            2007
          ],
          "sourceLocator": "Table 3, journal p329 (PDF5)"
        },
        {
          "cultivar": "Frantoio",
          "measure": "longitudinal mean fruit production",
          "value": 52.8,
          "unit": "kg fruit/tree/year",
          "years": [
            2003,
            2004,
            2005,
            2006,
            2007
          ],
          "sourceLocator": "Table 3, journal p329 (PDF5)"
        },
        {
          "cultivar": "Frantoio",
          "measure": "cumulative fruit production",
          "value": 261.6,
          "unit": "kg fruit/tree",
          "years": [
            2003,
            2004,
            2005,
            2006,
            2007
          ],
          "sourceLocator": "Table 3, journal p329 (PDF5)"
        },
        {
          "cultivar": "Frantoio",
          "measure": "alternate bearing index",
          "value": 0.4,
          "unit": "index 0-1",
          "years": [
            2003,
            2004,
            2005,
            2006,
            2007
          ],
          "sourceLocator": "Table 3, journal p329 (PDF5)"
        },
        {
          "cultivar": "Ascolana Huasco",
          "measure": "longitudinal mean fruit production",
          "value": 43.6,
          "unit": "kg fruit/tree/year",
          "years": [
            2003,
            2004,
            2005,
            2006,
            2007
          ],
          "sourceLocator": "Table 3, journal p329 (PDF5)"
        },
        {
          "cultivar": "Ascolana Huasco",
          "measure": "cumulative fruit production",
          "value": 215.5,
          "unit": "kg fruit/tree",
          "years": [
            2003,
            2004,
            2005,
            2006,
            2007
          ],
          "sourceLocator": "Table 3, journal p329 (PDF5)"
        },
        {
          "cultivar": "Ascolana Huasco",
          "measure": "alternate bearing index",
          "value": 0.41,
          "unit": "index 0-1",
          "years": [
            2003,
            2004,
            2005,
            2006,
            2007
          ],
          "sourceLocator": "Table 3, journal p329 (PDF5)"
        },
        {
          "cultivar": "Leccino",
          "measure": "longitudinal mean fruit production",
          "value": 61.8,
          "unit": "kg fruit/tree/year",
          "years": [
            2003,
            2004,
            2005,
            2006,
            2007
          ],
          "sourceLocator": "Table 3, journal p329 (PDF5)"
        },
        {
          "cultivar": "Leccino",
          "measure": "cumulative fruit production",
          "value": 306.5,
          "unit": "kg fruit/tree",
          "years": [
            2003,
            2004,
            2005,
            2006,
            2007
          ],
          "sourceLocator": "Table 3, journal p329 (PDF5)"
        }
      ],
      "outcomeSeries": [],
      "use": {
        "independentUnit": "tapia-2009",
        "spatialWeightingUnit": "northern_chile",
        "split": "study_and_geographic_holdout",
        "positivePotentialCheck": true,
        "floweringConstraintCheck": false,
        "reliabilityProbabilityTrainingEligible": false,
        "coordinateBonusAllowed": false
      },
      "originalGeographicCluster": "tapia-2009",
      "auditNotes": [
        "Annual tree yields were measured, but the article supplies five-year summaries rather than a complete numeric annual series.",
        "PML is a longitudinal model estimate and cumulative yield is separately estimated; do not force cumulative=5*PML or invent annual values.",
        "Juvenile orchard planted 2000. High selected-cultivar productivity and low ABI support managed potential, while mature long-term stability remains unestablished.",
        "Primary paper contains a minor 37.7/37.37 trial-mean discrepancy among English abstract/Table1 and Spanish text. Cultivar Table3 values are retained without selecting a preferred trial-wide figure."
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "cl-tierras-blancas",
      "name": "Tierras Blancas, San Felipe, Chile",
      "lat": -32.783333,
      "lng": -70.7,
      "coordinatePrecisionKm": 2,
      "coordinateProvenance": "Paper reports orchard coordinate 32°47′S 70°42′W, altitude 800 m.",
      "studyCluster": "selles-2006",
      "geographicCluster": "central_chile",
      "eligible": true,
      "waterScenario": "irrigated",
      "management": "Micro-sprinkler control 100% ETc and deficit treatments; mature 8-year-old table-olive orchard; pollinizers 15%.",
      "cultivars": [
        "Sevillana",
        "Empeltre",
        "Ascolana Tenera"
      ],
      "years": [
        1999,
        2000,
        2001
      ],
      "harvestYears": 3,
      "observations": "Fruit loads and harvest yields measured for three seasons, 1998–99 through 2000–01. 1999–2000 was the high-crop year; other two were low-crop years. Continuous deficit reduced high-year fruit load.",
      "freezeEvidence": null,
      "sources": [
        {
          "title": "Effect of Different Irrigation Treatments on Fruit Load, Fruit Size and Yield of Olive Trees cv. Sevillana",
          "url": "https://scielo.conicyt.cl/scielo.php?pid=S0365-28072006000100006&script=sci_arttext",
          "doi": "10.4067/S0365-28072006000100006",
          "locator": "Methods and results; Tables 3–5"
        }
      ],
      "outcomeClass": "repeated_measured_production",
      "priorUsed": false,
      "measuredFruitYieldAvailable": true,
      "annualReliabilityStatus": "variable",
      "futureAnnualHarvestProbability": null,
      "numericSuitabilityTarget": null,
      "sourceReview": "Primary source re-opened in current audit",
      "observedAnnualYieldSeries": null,
      "productionAggregates": [],
      "outcomeSeries": [],
      "use": {
        "independentUnit": "selles-2006",
        "spatialWeightingUnit": "central_chile",
        "split": "study_and_geographic_holdout",
        "positivePotentialCheck": true,
        "floweringConstraintCheck": false,
        "reliabilityProbabilityTrainingEligible": false,
        "coordinateBonusAllowed": false
      },
      "originalGeographicCluster": "selles-2006",
      "auditNotes": [
        "Three individually weighed seasons; source explicitly describes1998/99 and2000/01 low-crop seasons and1999/2000 high-crop season.",
        "No raw annual sequence transcribed in this audit: the online yield table is image-only. Do not infer numerical annual values from the prose.",
        "Full irrigation100%ETc is the positive control. Lower yield under deficit irrigation is management treatment evidence, not a climatic negative."
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ar-aimogasta-manzanilla",
      "name": "Commercial orchard 15 km east of Aimogasta, Argentina",
      "lat": -28.55,
      "lng": -66.816667,
      "coordinatePrecisionKm": 2,
      "coordinateProvenance": "Paper reports orchard coordinate 28°33′S 66°49′W, altitude 800 m.",
      "studyCluster": "correa-tedesco-2010",
      "geographicCluster": "argentina",
      "eligible": true,
      "waterScenario": "irrigated",
      "management": "Mature table olives; five drip irrigation Kc levels 0.50–1.15; watered 2–3 times weekly.",
      "cultivars": [
        "Manzanilla fina"
      ],
      "years": [
        2006,
        2007
      ],
      "harvestYears": 2,
      "observations": "Fruit yields measured in both seasons. Second-year maximum at Kc 0.70–0.85; reduced irrigation reduced fruit number. No unirrigated treatment.",
      "freezeEvidence": null,
      "sources": [
        {
          "title": "Plant growth and yield responses in olive to different irrigation levels in an arid region of Argentina",
          "url": "https://ri.conicet.gov.ar/bitstream/handle/11336/68532/CONICET_Digital_Nro.e6a9d979-1374-43af-9b66-8ed5be45c515_A.pdf?isAllowed=y&sequence=2",
          "doi": "10.1016/j.agwat.2010.06.020",
          "locator": "Methods section 2.1 and yield results"
        }
      ],
      "outcomeClass": "short_measured_production",
      "priorUsed": false,
      "measuredFruitYieldAvailable": true,
      "annualReliabilityStatus": "not-established",
      "futureAnnualHarvestProbability": null,
      "numericSuitabilityTarget": null,
      "sourceReview": "Previously transcribed primary evidence retained; not independently re-extracted in current audit",
      "observedAnnualYieldSeries": null,
      "productionAggregates": [],
      "outcomeSeries": [],
      "use": {
        "independentUnit": "correa-tedesco-2010",
        "spatialWeightingUnit": "argentina",
        "split": "study_and_geographic_holdout",
        "positivePotentialCheck": false,
        "floweringConstraintCheck": false,
        "reliabilityProbabilityTrainingEligible": false,
        "coordinateBonusAllowed": false
      },
      "originalGeographicCluster": "correa-tedesco-2010"
    },
    {
      "id": "ar-junin-inta",
      "name": "INTA Junín Olive Germplasm Collection, Mendoza, Argentina",
      "lat": -33.1,
      "lng": -68.483333,
      "coordinatePrecisionKm": 2,
      "coordinateProvenance": "Both papers report experimental farm coordinate 33°06′S 68°29′W, altitude 653 m.",
      "studyCluster": "junin-multiple-studies",
      "geographicCluster": "argentina",
      "eligible": true,
      "waterScenario": "irrigated",
      "management": "Surface irrigation approximately every 15 days for mature germplasm collection; shading experiment separately tests Arbequina.",
      "cultivars": [
        "Arbequina",
        "Arauco",
        "Blanqueta",
        "Canino",
        "Criolla Salvarredi",
        "Villalonga"
      ],
      "years": [
        2011,
        2012,
        2013,
        2014,
        2015
      ],
      "harvestYears": 5,
      "observations": "Fruit/oil sampled in three consecutive 2010–11 through 2012–13 seasons (Arbequina), and 18 varieties sampled during 2013–14 and 2014–15. Oil-extraction percentage is not orchard fruit yield.",
      "freezeEvidence": null,
      "sources": [
        {
          "title": "Effect of shading in different periods from flowering to maturity on fatty acid and phenolic composition of olive oil",
          "url": "https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0304423818303911",
          "locator": "Experimental site and 2010–2013 seasons"
        },
        {
          "title": "Promising olive varieties for extra virgin oil production in Mendoza, Argentina",
          "url": "https://link.springer.com/article/10.1016/j.jssas.2022.06.003",
          "doi": "10.1016/j.jssas.2022.06.003",
          "locator": "Methods 2.1; Tables 1 and 4"
        }
      ],
      "outcomeClass": "repeated_quality_sampling",
      "priorUsed": false,
      "measuredFruitYieldAvailable": false,
      "annualReliabilityStatus": "not-established",
      "futureAnnualHarvestProbability": null,
      "numericSuitabilityTarget": null,
      "sourceReview": "Previously transcribed primary evidence retained; not independently re-extracted in current audit",
      "observedAnnualYieldSeries": null,
      "productionAggregates": [],
      "outcomeSeries": [],
      "use": {
        "independentUnit": "junin-multiple-studies",
        "spatialWeightingUnit": "argentina",
        "split": "study_and_geographic_holdout",
        "positivePotentialCheck": false,
        "floweringConstraintCheck": false,
        "reliabilityProbabilityTrainingEligible": false,
        "coordinateBonusAllowed": false
      },
      "originalGeographicCluster": "junin-multiple-studies"
    },
    {
      "id": "cn-beihe-xichang",
      "name": "Beihe Olive Commercial Orchard, Xixi village, Xichang, China",
      "lat": 27.733333,
      "lng": 102.233333,
      "coordinatePrecisionKm": 2,
      "coordinateProvenance": "Paper reports orchard coordinate 27°44′N 102°14′E, elevation 1590 m.",
      "studyCluster": "liu-2019-xichang",
      "geographicCluster": "xichang",
      "eligible": true,
      "waterScenario": "both",
      "management": "Rainfed, flood and drip treatments. Irrigation late November–late May; winter/spring dry despite wet summer. Other practices follow commercial orchard management.",
      "cultivars": [
        "Coratina",
        "Koroneiki"
      ],
      "years": [
        2016,
        2017
      ],
      "harvestYears": 2,
      "observations": "Two-season mean fruit kg/tree: Coratina rainfed 4.71, drip 30.38; Koroneiki rainfed 3.76, drip 28.19. Drip substantially increased flowering, fruit set and oil yield.",
      "freezeEvidence": null,
      "sources": [
        {
          "title": "Drip Irrigation Elevated Olive Productivity in Southwest China",
          "url": "https://journals.ashs.org/horttech/view/journals/horttech/29/2/article-p122.xml",
          "doi": "10.21273/HORTTECH04211-18",
          "locator": "Methods; Tables 2–3",
          "accessibleCopy": "https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/8c64/4cc64e7d94f3a2c57847d60c3533ada8514f.pdf"
        }
      ],
      "outcomeClass": "short_measured_production",
      "priorUsed": true,
      "measuredFruitYieldAvailable": true,
      "annualReliabilityStatus": "not-established",
      "futureAnnualHarvestProbability": null,
      "numericSuitabilityTarget": null,
      "sourceReview": "Previously transcribed primary evidence retained; not independently re-extracted in current audit",
      "observedAnnualYieldSeries": null,
      "productionAggregates": [],
      "outcomeSeries": [],
      "use": {
        "independentUnit": "liu-2019-xichang",
        "spatialWeightingUnit": "xichang",
        "split": "development_already_discussed",
        "positivePotentialCheck": false,
        "floweringConstraintCheck": false,
        "reliabilityProbabilityTrainingEligible": false,
        "coordinateBonusAllowed": false
      },
      "originalGeographicCluster": "liu-2019-xichang"
    },
    {
      "id": "us-tx-weslaco",
      "name": "Established Arbequina grove near Weslaco, Texas, USA",
      "lat": 26.16,
      "lng": -97.93,
      "coordinatePrecisionKm": 2,
      "coordinateProvenance": "Primary USDA-ARS paper explicitly reports grove coordinate N26.16 W97.93; 60 established trees.",
      "studyCluster": "malik-2011-texas",
      "geographicCluster": "texas_malik2011",
      "eligible": true,
      "waterScenario": "unknown",
      "management": "Established open-field grove; no imposed canopy cooling reported for this trial.",
      "cultivars": [
        "Arbequina"
      ],
      "years": [
        2006,
        2007,
        2008,
        2009
      ],
      "harvestYears": 4,
      "observations": "Percent trees fruiting 2006–09: [0,63,0,0]. Flowering [0,79,0,0]. Inhibitory winter daytime warmth implicated.",
      "freezeEvidence": null,
      "sources": [
        {
          "title": "Feasibility of Growing Olives on Selected Sites along Coastal Texas",
          "url": "https://www.floridaolive.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/Growing-Olives-Texas-Coast.pdf",
          "locator": "Methods 2.1; Tables 1–3",
          "provenance": "Primary USDA-ARS author paper hosted by Florida Olive Council"
        }
      ],
      "outcomeClass": "repeated_flowering_constraint",
      "priorUsed": false,
      "measuredFruitYieldAvailable": false,
      "annualReliabilityStatus": "poor",
      "futureAnnualHarvestProbability": null,
      "numericSuitabilityTarget": null,
      "sourceReview": "Primary source re-opened in current audit",
      "observedAnnualYieldSeries": null,
      "productionAggregates": [],
      "outcomeSeries": [
        {
          "cultivar": "Arbequina",
          "measure": "trees with visible fruit",
          "unit": "percent of assessed trees",
          "years": [
            2006,
            2007,
            2008,
            2009
          ],
          "values": [
            0,
            63,
            0,
            0
          ],
          "sourceLocator": "Table2, USDA-ARS author study"
        },
        {
          "cultivar": "Arbequina",
          "measure": "trees with visible flowers",
          "unit": "percent of assessed trees",
          "years": [
            2006,
            2007,
            2008,
            2009
          ],
          "values": [
            0,
            79,
            0,
            0
          ],
          "sourceLocator": "Table1, USDA-ARS author study"
        }
      ],
      "use": {
        "independentUnit": "malik-2011-texas",
        "spatialWeightingUnit": "texas_malik2011",
        "split": "study_and_geographic_holdout",
        "positivePotentialCheck": false,
        "floweringConstraintCheck": true,
        "reliabilityProbabilityTrainingEligible": false,
        "coordinateBonusAllowed": false
      },
      "originalGeographicCluster": "malik-2011-texas",
      "auditNotes": [
        "Tree-level flowering/fruiting percentages and visual intensity are not weighed crop tonnage.",
        "Winter daytime heat interruptions were implicated. These outcomes are not evidence that absolute freeze killed the trees.",
        "Keep every site/year/cultivar of this study in one split. It is the only repeated nonflowering study in this assembled dataset; it cannot establish globally representative specificity."
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "us-tx-carrizo-springs",
      "name": "Texas Olive Ranch, Carrizo Springs, Texas, USA",
      "lat": 28.41,
      "lng": -99.73,
      "coordinatePrecisionKm": 2,
      "coordinateProvenance": "Paper reports commercial orchard coordinate N28.41 W99.73; 1000 randomly selected trees.",
      "studyCluster": "malik-2011-texas",
      "geographicCluster": "texas_malik2011",
      "eligible": true,
      "waterScenario": "unknown",
      "management": "Commercial 20,000-tree orchard; sampled cultivar clone I-18.",
      "cultivars": [
        "Arbequina I-18"
      ],
      "years": [
        2006,
        2007,
        2008,
        2009
      ],
      "harvestYears": 4,
      "observations": "Percent trees fruiting 2006–09: [0,99,0,18]. Flowering [0,99,0,14]. Winter daytime heat interruptions implicated.",
      "freezeEvidence": null,
      "sources": [
        {
          "title": "Feasibility of Growing Olives on Selected Sites along Coastal Texas",
          "url": "https://www.floridaolive.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/Growing-Olives-Texas-Coast.pdf",
          "locator": "Methods 2.1; Tables 1–3",
          "provenance": "Primary USDA-ARS author paper hosted by Florida Olive Council"
        }
      ],
      "outcomeClass": "repeated_flowering_constraint",
      "priorUsed": false,
      "measuredFruitYieldAvailable": false,
      "annualReliabilityStatus": "poor",
      "futureAnnualHarvestProbability": null,
      "numericSuitabilityTarget": null,
      "sourceReview": "Primary source re-opened in current audit",
      "observedAnnualYieldSeries": null,
      "productionAggregates": [],
      "outcomeSeries": [
        {
          "cultivar": "Arbequina I-18",
          "measure": "trees with visible fruit",
          "unit": "percent of assessed trees",
          "years": [
            2006,
            2007,
            2008,
            2009
          ],
          "values": [
            0,
            99,
            0,
            18
          ],
          "sourceLocator": "Table2, USDA-ARS author study"
        },
        {
          "cultivar": "Arbequina I-18",
          "measure": "trees with visible flowers",
          "unit": "percent of assessed trees",
          "years": [
            2006,
            2007,
            2008,
            2009
          ],
          "values": [
            0,
            99,
            0,
            14
          ],
          "sourceLocator": "Table1, USDA-ARS author study"
        }
      ],
      "use": {
        "independentUnit": "malik-2011-texas",
        "spatialWeightingUnit": "texas_malik2011",
        "split": "study_and_geographic_holdout",
        "positivePotentialCheck": false,
        "floweringConstraintCheck": true,
        "reliabilityProbabilityTrainingEligible": false,
        "coordinateBonusAllowed": false
      },
      "originalGeographicCluster": "malik-2011-texas",
      "auditNotes": [
        "Tree-level flowering/fruiting percentages and visual intensity are not weighed crop tonnage.",
        "Winter daytime heat interruptions were implicated. These outcomes are not evidence that absolute freeze killed the trees.",
        "Keep every site/year/cultivar of this study in one split. It is the only repeated nonflowering study in this assembled dataset; it cannot establish globally representative specificity."
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "us-tx-orange",
      "name": "Experimental Arbequina grove, Orange, Texas, USA",
      "lat": 29.56,
      "lng": -93.87,
      "coordinatePrecisionKm": 100,
      "coordinateProvenance": "Paper reports N29.56 W93.87 for Orange, but this appears offshore, south of Orange, Texas. Retained as reported and excluded pending correction by an independent primary location record; 50 replicate trees planted 2004.",
      "studyCluster": "malik-2011-texas",
      "geographicCluster": "texas_malik2011",
      "eligible": false,
      "waterScenario": "unknown",
      "management": "Small experimental planting; no commercial yield/economic test.",
      "cultivars": [
        "Arbequina"
      ],
      "years": [
        2006,
        2007,
        2008,
        2009
      ],
      "harvestYears": 4,
      "observations": "Percent trees fruiting 2006–09: [56,73,42,63]. Moderate-to-extensive fruiting: [30,38,9,34]%.",
      "freezeEvidence": null,
      "sources": [
        {
          "title": "Feasibility of Growing Olives on Selected Sites along Coastal Texas",
          "url": "https://www.floridaolive.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/Growing-Olives-Texas-Coast.pdf",
          "locator": "Methods 2.1; Table 2",
          "provenance": "Primary USDA-ARS author paper hosted by Florida Olive Council"
        }
      ],
      "outcomeClass": "excluded_location",
      "priorUsed": false,
      "measuredFruitYieldAvailable": false,
      "annualReliabilityStatus": "not-established",
      "futureAnnualHarvestProbability": null,
      "numericSuitabilityTarget": null,
      "sourceReview": "Primary source re-opened in current audit",
      "observedAnnualYieldSeries": null,
      "productionAggregates": [],
      "outcomeSeries": [
        {
          "cultivar": "Arbequina",
          "measure": "trees with visible fruit",
          "unit": "percent of assessed trees",
          "years": [
            2006,
            2007,
            2008,
            2009
          ],
          "values": [
            56,
            73,
            42,
            63
          ],
          "sourceLocator": "Table2, USDA-ARS author study"
        }
      ],
      "use": {
        "independentUnit": "malik-2011-texas",
        "spatialWeightingUnit": "texas_malik2011",
        "split": "excluded",
        "positivePotentialCheck": false,
        "floweringConstraintCheck": false,
        "reliabilityProbabilityTrainingEligible": false,
        "coordinateBonusAllowed": false
      },
      "exclusionReason": "Coordinate not orchard-specific or source-coordinate conflict; excluded from spatial metrics.",
      "originalGeographicCluster": "malik-2011-texas",
      "auditNotes": [
        "Tree-level flowering/fruiting percentages and visual intensity are not weighed crop tonnage.",
        "Winter daytime heat interruptions were implicated. These outcomes are not evidence that absolute freeze killed the trees.",
        "Keep every site/year/cultivar of this study in one split. It is the only repeated nonflowering study in this assembled dataset; it cannot establish globally representative specificity."
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "us-hi-lalamilo",
      "name": "Lalamilo Experiment Station, Hawaii Island, USA",
      "lat": 20.0176,
      "lng": -155.6827,
      "coordinatePrecisionKm": 1,
      "coordinateProvenance": "Final 2016 ASHS paper reports site coordinate and elevation 2700 ft; 2015 conference poster has a nearby differing station coordinate. Final paper coordinate retained.",
      "studyCluster": "miyasaka-2016-hawaii",
      "geographicCluster": "miyasaka-2016-hawaii",
      "eligible": true,
      "waterScenario": "irrigated",
      "management": "Drip irrigation; volcanic well-drained soil; wind guards during establishment; intensive research management.",
      "cultivars": [
        "Arbequina",
        "Arbosana",
        "Koroneiki",
        "Coratina",
        "Frantoio",
        "Leccino",
        "Mission",
        "Moraiolo",
        "Pendolino",
        "Taggiasca"
      ],
      "years": [
        2013,
        2014,
        2015
      ],
      "harvestYears": 3,
      "observations": "Arbequina, Arbosana, Koroneiki fruited in 2013–15; mean 2013–14 yield 2.14–2.45 kg/tree. Seven other cultivars unharvestable. Only two trees each harvested in 2015 after fruit drop.",
      "freezeEvidence": null,
      "sources": [
        {
          "title": "Promising Olive Cultivars for Oil Production in Hawaii",
          "url": "https://journals.ashs.org/downloadpdf/journals/horttech/26/4/article-p497.pdf",
          "doi": "10.21273/HORTTECH.26.4.497",
          "locator": "Abstract; methods"
        },
        {
          "title": "Reflective Guide to Growing Olives for Oil Production in Hawai‘i",
          "url": "https://www.ctahr.hawaii.edu/oc/freepubs/pdf/NPH-16.pdf",
          "locator": "Pages 2–3, 6–8; Table 3"
        }
      ],
      "outcomeClass": "cultivar_dependent_production_challenge",
      "priorUsed": false,
      "measuredFruitYieldAvailable": true,
      "annualReliabilityStatus": "poor",
      "futureAnnualHarvestProbability": null,
      "numericSuitabilityTarget": null,
      "sourceReview": "Previously transcribed primary evidence retained; not independently re-extracted in current audit",
      "observedAnnualYieldSeries": null,
      "productionAggregates": [],
      "outcomeSeries": [],
      "use": {
        "independentUnit": "miyasaka-2016-hawaii",
        "spatialWeightingUnit": "miyasaka-2016-hawaii",
        "split": "development_already_discussed",
        "positivePotentialCheck": false,
        "floweringConstraintCheck": false,
        "reliabilityProbabilityTrainingEligible": false,
        "coordinateBonusAllowed": false
      },
      "originalGeographicCluster": "miyasaka-2016-hawaii",
      "cultivarOutcomes": [
        {
          "cultivars": [
            "Arbequina",
            "Arbosana",
            "Koroneiki"
          ],
          "class": "repeated_small_harvests",
          "years": [
            2013,
            2014,
            2015
          ],
          "qualifier": "Low/variable yield; severe fruit drop in2015 and only two trees/cultivar harvested. Young trial, not mature production reliability."
        },
        {
          "cultivars": [
            "Coratina",
            "Frantoio",
            "Leccino",
            "Mission",
            "Moraiolo",
            "Pendolino",
            "Taggiasca"
          ],
          "class": "insufficient_harvest_for_collection",
          "years": [
            2013,
            2014,
            2015
          ],
          "qualifier": "Cultivar failure at this site does not imply all cultivated edible olives fail at this coordinate."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "us-ca-corning-context",
      "name": "California Olive Ranch orchard near Corning, California, USA",
      "lat": 39.9277,
      "lng": -122.1792,
      "coordinatePrecisionKm": 30,
      "coordinateProvenance": "Representative town location only; paper names commercial orchard in Corning but gives no plot coordinates. Excluded from precise validation.",
      "studyCluster": "polari-2021-corning",
      "geographicCluster": "polari-2021-corning",
      "eligible": false,
      "waterScenario": "irrigated",
      "management": "Commercial super-high-density orchard, surface drip in spring and summer.",
      "cultivars": [
        "Arbequina",
        "Arbosana",
        "Koroneiki"
      ],
      "years": [
        2016,
        2017,
        2018
      ],
      "harvestYears": 3,
      "observations": "Fruit sampled throughout ripening in three consecutive harvest seasons. Quality/composition study, not measured orchard yield consistency.",
      "freezeEvidence": null,
      "sources": [
        {
          "title": "Cultivar Determines Fatty Acids and Phenolics Dynamics for Olive Fruit and Oil in Super-High-Density Orchards",
          "url": "https://mdpi-res.com/d_attachment/agronomy/agronomy-11-00313/article_deploy/agronomy-11-00313-v2.pdf",
          "doi": "10.3390/agronomy11020313",
          "locator": "Methods 2.1"
        }
      ],
      "outcomeClass": "excluded_location",
      "priorUsed": false,
      "measuredFruitYieldAvailable": false,
      "annualReliabilityStatus": "not-established",
      "futureAnnualHarvestProbability": null,
      "numericSuitabilityTarget": null,
      "sourceReview": "Previously transcribed primary evidence retained; not independently re-extracted in current audit",
      "observedAnnualYieldSeries": null,
      "productionAggregates": [],
      "outcomeSeries": [],
      "use": {
        "independentUnit": "polari-2021-corning",
        "spatialWeightingUnit": "polari-2021-corning",
        "split": "excluded",
        "positivePotentialCheck": false,
        "floweringConstraintCheck": false,
        "reliabilityProbabilityTrainingEligible": false,
        "coordinateBonusAllowed": false
      },
      "exclusionReason": "Coordinate not orchard-specific or source-coordinate conflict; excluded from spatial metrics.",
      "originalGeographicCluster": "polari-2021-corning"
    },
    {
      "id": "cn-lishui-context",
      "name": "Lishui cultivar trial, Zhejiang, China",
      "lat": 28.467,
      "lng": 119.922,
      "coordinatePrecisionKm": 100,
      "coordinateProvenance": "Representative city location only; accessible abstract locates trial in Lishui City without orchard coordinate. Mountainous municipal area is large. Excluded from precise validation.",
      "studyCluster": "niu-2021-lishui",
      "geographicCluster": "niu-2021-lishui",
      "eligible": false,
      "waterScenario": "unknown",
      "management": "Pollinizer selection emphasized. Accessible abstract does not report complete water or disease management or exact trial calendar.",
      "cultivars": [
        "Nichiskii I",
        "Arbequina",
        "Koroneiki",
        "Fecciaro",
        "Frantoio",
        "Limona",
        "Manzanilla",
        "Nocellara del Belice",
        "Peranzana",
        "Taggiasca"
      ],
      "years": [],
      "harvestYears": 0,
      "observations": "Five-year trial; third bearing year fruiting rates 100%,90%,65% and yields 16.4,10.9,5.9 kg/tree for Nichiskii I, Arbequina, Koroneiki. Abstract alone does not establish multi-year yield consistency.",
      "freezeEvidence": null,
      "sources": [
        {
          "title": "Screening of Outstanding Olive Varieties and Compatable Pollinizers for Southern China",
          "url": "https://www.hnxb.org.cn/CN/10.11869/j.issn.100-8551.2021.04.0960",
          "doi": "10.11869/j.issn.100-8551.2021.04.0960",
          "locator": "English and Chinese abstracts"
        }
      ],
      "outcomeClass": "excluded_location",
      "priorUsed": false,
      "measuredFruitYieldAvailable": false,
      "annualReliabilityStatus": "not-established",
      "futureAnnualHarvestProbability": null,
      "numericSuitabilityTarget": null,
      "sourceReview": "Previously transcribed primary evidence retained; not independently re-extracted in current audit",
      "observedAnnualYieldSeries": null,
      "productionAggregates": [],
      "outcomeSeries": [],
      "use": {
        "independentUnit": "niu-2021-lishui",
        "spatialWeightingUnit": "niu-2021-lishui",
        "split": "excluded",
        "positivePotentialCheck": false,
        "floweringConstraintCheck": false,
        "reliabilityProbabilityTrainingEligible": false,
        "coordinateBonusAllowed": false
      },
      "exclusionReason": "Coordinate not orchard-specific or source-coordinate conflict; excluded from spatial metrics.",
      "originalGeographicCluster": "niu-2021-lishui"
    },
    {
      "id": "eul-guzelyurt-koroneiki-2013-2017",
      "name": "Guzelyurt · five crop-year Koroneiki trial",
      "lat": 35.1862611111,
      "lng": 32.9724555556,
      "elevationM": 41,
      "coordinatePrecisionKm": null,
      "coordinateProvenance": "Original field study experimental-site description, journal p1775 (PDF1); point only, no orchard boundary.",
      "studyCluster": "usanmaz2019_guzelyurt",
      "geographicCluster": "cyprus_lowland",
      "eligible": true,
      "waterScenario": "irrigated",
      "management": "Young high-density trial plantedMay2012; irrigation everyfive daysMay-October.",
      "cultivars": [
        "Koroneiki"
      ],
      "years": [
        2013,
        2014,
        2015,
        2016,
        2017
      ],
      "harvestYears": 5,
      "observations": "Young irrigated high-density trial, planted May 2012. Annual Koroneiki fruit and oil harvests were measured over five crop seasons.",
      "observedAnnualYieldSeries": {
        "cultivar": "Koroneiki",
        "unit": "kg fruit/tree",
        "seasonStartYears": [
          2013,
          2014,
          2015,
          2016,
          2017
        ],
        "values": [
          0.41,
          4.78,
          9.58,
          6.08,
          6.81
        ]
      },
      "oilYieldKgTree": [
        0.08,
        0.99,
        2.12,
        1.38,
        1.56
      ],
      "harvestDates": [
        "2014-01-04",
        "2015-01-13",
        "2016-01-11",
        "2017-01-10",
        "2018-01-07"
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "title": "Performance and oil quality of seven olive cultivars under high density planting system in Northern Cyprus",
          "authors": "Usanmaz, Kahramanoglu, Alas and Okatan",
          "year": 2019,
          "doi": "10.30848/PJB2019-5(42)",
          "url": "https://pakbs.org/pjbot/papers/1560039128.pdf",
          "sitePage": "1775 (PDF1)",
          "irrigationPage": "1776 (PDF2)",
          "fruitYieldTable": "Table4,1777(PDF3)",
          "harvestTable": "Table3,1777(PDF3)",
          "oilYieldTable": "Table6,1778(PDF4)"
        }
      ],
      "outcomeClass": "repeated_measured_production",
      "measuredFruitYieldAvailable": true,
      "annualReliabilityStatus": "young_orchard_mature_reliability_unestablished",
      "futureAnnualHarvestProbability": null,
      "numericSuitabilityTarget": null,
      "sourceReview": "Previously transcribed primary Cyprus trial retained; local source was independently checked in previous revision",
      "productionAggregates": [],
      "outcomeSeries": [],
      "auditNotes": [
        "Exact lowland41m orchard. No projection to mountain terrain or source-presence bonus.",
        "Already used for Cyprus development; cannot serve as a fresh independent test."
      ],
      "use": {
        "independentUnit": "usanmaz2019_guzelyurt",
        "spatialWeightingUnit": "cyprus_lowland",
        "split": "development_already_discussed",
        "positivePotentialCheck": true,
        "floweringConstraintCheck": false,
        "reliabilityProbabilityTrainingEligible": false,
        "coordinateBonusAllowed": false
      }
    }
  ],
  "contextOnly": [
    {
      "id": "jp_kagawa_context",
      "name": "Shodoshima/Kagawa edible-olive production",
      "evidenceClass": "official_production_context",
      "spatialEvaluationEligible": false,
      "coordinates": null,
      "reasonExcluded": "Official history establishes edible cultivars, fruit-processing and oil production since early 1900s, but no exact orchard coordinate with a multi-year measured harvest series found. Do not replace this with the existing benchmark pin.",
      "sourceUrls": [
        "https://www.pref.kagawa.lg.jp/noshishozu/noshi_olive/sori.html",
        "https://www.kensanpin.org/en/olive/basic_info/",
        "https://www.japanfruit.jp/Portals/0/images/fruit/endemic/pdf/oriibu.pdf"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "nz_management_context",
      "name": "New Zealand MPI three-year olive-production management trial",
      "evidenceClass": "official_multi_year_regional_production_context",
      "spatialEvaluationEligible": false,
      "coordinates": null,
      "reasonExcluded": "Five grove trial across major regions; MPI reports 20-35kg/tree by project end after pruning/disease-control changes. Exact site coordinates and per-site annual series absent from public summary. Cannot geolocate regional yields to town/pin centroids.",
      "sourceUrls": [
        "https://www.mpi.govt.nz/dmsdocument/38924/direct/",
        "https://www.olivesnz.org.nz/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/2011-Year-3-Final-Technical-Report-_Effects_of_Harvest_Maturity_on_Extra_Virgin_Olive-PFR-2011-25568-FINAL.pdf"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "za_growing_context",
      "name": "Western Cape commercial cultivated olives",
      "evidenceClass": "industry_cultivar_context",
      "spatialEvaluationEligible": false,
      "coordinates": null,
      "reasonExcluded": "South African Olive Association documents edible table/oil cultivars and management. No exact-location multi-year quantitative harvest series located in this bounded search; no invented orchard coordinate.",
      "sourceUrls": [
        "https://www.saolive.co.za/olive-growing/"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "tn_mornag_excluded",
      "name": "Mornag Chetoui irrigation experiment",
      "evidenceClass": "coordinate_conflict_excluded",
      "spatialEvaluationEligible": false,
      "coordinates": null,
      "reasonExcluded": "Three-year 2005-2007 primary yield study prints latitude 32°7 but describes Mornag plain 15km southeast of Tunis. Geographic inconsistency prevents a trustworthy point comparison without clarification; do not silently repair the coordinate.",
      "sourceUrls": [
        "https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC4912070/"
      ]
    },
    {
      "title": "Olives – Texas Fruit and Nut Production",
      "url": "https://mytexas.ag.tamu.edu/publications/olives-texas-fruit-and-nut-production/",
      "finding": "2021 freeze devastated production in Hill Country/Central/East Texas north of Highway 90. Trees killed to ground can take three years to fruit. Lower Rio Grande Valley olives often fail to flower. This is regional extension evidence, not orchard-coordinate observations; excluded from point-specific performance statistics."
    },
    {
      "title": "Sostenibilidad del cultivo de olivo bajo un enfoque climatológico en una región árida, cabecera del desierto de Atacama",
      "url": "https://revistacta.agrosavia.co/html/2652/",
      "finding": "Tacna, Peru regional mean 5.41 t/ha for 2012–15, with SENAMHI La Yarada weather station 18°14′S 70°23′W. Station is not an identified yield orchard; do not pass station coordinates off as an orchard. Regional production corroboration only."
    }
  ]
}