{ "version": 1, "source": "NOAA GHCN-Daily and supplemental Cyprus Department of Meteorology", "sourceDocumentation": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/ghcn/daily/readme.txt", "qc": "Exclude GHCN missing -9999 and any nonblank Q flag. Accepted years >=95% annual AND >=95% November-March (NH) or May-September (SH) accepted TMIN days. No gapfill. Cyprus accepted paired CSV independent source sanity checks, no sourceQCflags.", "selectionProtocol": { "createdUTC": "2026-10-18T17:57:00.830957+00:00", "models": [ { "id": "uncorrected", "features": [], "ridge": 0 }, { "id": "global_intercept", "features": [], "ridge": 0 }, { "id": "monthly_extreme_gap", "features": [ "nativeBio06MinusEra5Mean" ], "ridge": 3 }, { "id": "native_reference_anomaly", "features": [ "nativeBio06MinusReferenceBio06" ], "ridge": 3 }, { "id": "native_cold_mean_variability", "features": [ "nativeBio06", "era5Mean", "era5SD" ], "ridge": 10 } ], "target": "Mean matched annual (station TNn minus ERA5EX TNn) residual; each station contributes equal fit weight. Original-year comparison uses >=95% annual and cold-season QC-passed daily TMIN coverage.", "cv": "Leave one of eight predefined geographic regions out, fit on seven. Report station-equal averages of annual MAE, absolute mean error and threshold-frequency absolute error.", "featurePeriod": "ERA5 mean1991-2020 and standard deviation1991-2025, sampled at nearest native 0.1 degree point (or explicitly flagged nearest valid land within15km). Native CHELSA BIO06 at station and native reference point, 1981-2010.", "selection": "All fixed model candidates reported. A smallest adequate model is selected using >=5% annual MAE improvement with meanbias improvement and no held-region annual MAE deterioration >0.5C. This is model selection using CV, not an independent final accuracy claim.", "limitations": [ "Target is thermometer temperature, not edible-olive yield or crop-loss probability.", "Eight regions and 49 stations are sparse; missing Japan/Chile/North Africa coverage is explicit.", "Station neighbours are not fully independent climate samples. Hold-region tests reduce direct geographic leakage.", "Native CHELSA data and ERA5 products share reanalysis inputs; station observations are the validation target.", "95% daily coverage can still miss annual extreme, with a likely warm bias in the station target.", "Calendar-year TNn does not measure acclimation, freeze duration, phenological timing or orchard cold pools." ] }, "stationCount": 50, "calibrationStationCount": 49, "independentGeographicCVIncludesProdromos": false, "nativeClimateSource": "CHELSA v2.1 original30arcsecond1981-2010 pixels", "era5Source": "ERA5-EX Figsharev4 doi10.6084/m9.figshare.31812172.v4, original0.1degree TNn, exactmatchedyears", "stations": [ { "id": "SP000008410", "name": "CORDOBA AEROPUERTO", "lat": 37.8442, "lng": -4.8458, "elevationM": 90.0, "nativeBio06": 4.65, "nativeBio11": 10.85, "meanResidualC": -1.061056875, "matchedYears": 32, "acceptedYears": [ 1992, 1993, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 ], "region": "iberia", "recordClass": "15+-year primary", "source": "NOAA GHCN-Daily", "url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/ghcn/daily/all/SP000008410.dly", "rawSHA256": "0b8c0c24d9fba2b6e9a28528b654acccc9c7e6734615626172e980ebbba8b005", "developmentStation": false, "includedInGeographicCV": true, "qualityRejected": 0, "era5NativePoint": { "lat": 37.8, "lng": -4.800000000000011, "index": [ 522, 3552 ], "nearestGridPointWasMissing": false, "distanceKm": 6.351, "fallbackRule": "Nearest valid land point within 15 km only when rounded native point is missing" }, "nativeClimate": { "bio05": 35.75, "bio06": 4.65, "bio10": 28.05, "bio11": 10.85 }, "era5ReferenceNativeClimate": { "bio05": 35.45, "bio06": 4.25, "bio10": 27.65, "bio11": 10.55 }, "annual": [ { "year": 1991, "days": 337, "coverage": 0.92329, "winterDays": 123, "winterCoverage": 0.81457, "adequate": false, "observedTNnC": -2.0, "era5TNnC": -2.38437, "residualC": 0.38437 }, { "year": 1992, "days": 366, "coverage": 1.0, "winterDays": 152, "winterCoverage": 1.0, "adequate": true, "observedTNnC": -6.4, "era5TNnC": -2.47852, "residualC": -3.92148 }, { "year": 1993, "days": 365, "coverage": 1.0, "winterDays": 151, "winterCoverage": 1.0, "adequate": true, "observedTNnC": -4.2, "era5TNnC": -2.66544, "residualC": -1.53456 }, { "year": 1994, "days": 337, "coverage": 0.92329, "winterDays": 123, "winterCoverage": 0.81457, "adequate": false, "observedTNnC": -5.2, "era5TNnC": -3.64587, "residualC": -1.55413 }, { "year": 1995, "days": 337, "coverage": 0.92329, "winterDays": 123, "winterCoverage": 0.81457, "adequate": false, "observedTNnC": -4.4, "era5TNnC": -1.65753, "residualC": -2.74247 }, { "year": 1996, "days": 366, "coverage": 1.0, "winterDays": 152, "winterCoverage": 1.0, "adequate": true, "observedTNnC": -1.5, "era5TNnC": -1.93643, "residualC": 0.43643 }, { "year": 1997, "days": 365, "coverage": 1.0, "winterDays": 151, "winterCoverage": 1.0, "adequate": true, "observedTNnC": 1.8, "era5TNnC": 0.8342, "residualC": 0.9658 }, { "year": 1998, "days": 365, "coverage": 1.0, "winterDays": 151, "winterCoverage": 1.0, "adequate": true, "observedTNnC": -3.2, "era5TNnC": -1.43616, "residualC": -1.76384 }, { "year": 1999, "days": 365, "coverage": 1.0, "winterDays": 151, "winterCoverage": 1.0, "adequate": true, "observedTNnC": -3.8, "era5TNnC": -2.19217, "residualC": -1.60783 }, { "year": 2000, "days": 366, "coverage": 1.0, "winterDays": 152, "winterCoverage": 1.0, "adequate": true, "observedTNnC": -1.8, "era5TNnC": -2.97263, "residualC": 1.17263 }, { "year": 2001, "days": 365, "coverage": 1.0, "winterDays": 151, "winterCoverage": 1.0, "adequate": true, "observedTNnC": -0.8, "era5TNnC": -1.24503, "residualC": 0.44503 }, { "year": 2002, "days": 365, "coverage": 1.0, "winterDays": 151, "winterCoverage": 1.0, "adequate": true, "observedTNnC": -0.6, "era5TNnC": 0.87375, "residualC": -1.47375 }, { "year": 2003, "days": 365, "coverage": 1.0, "winterDays": 151, "winterCoverage": 1.0, "adequate": true, "observedTNnC": -2.1, "era5TNnC": -3.23508, "residualC": 1.13508 }, { "year": 2004, "days": 366, "coverage": 1.0, "winterDays": 152, "winterCoverage": 1.0, "adequate": true, "observedTNnC": -4.8, "era5TNnC": -2.19489, "residualC": -2.60511 }, { "year": 2005, "days": 365, "coverage": 1.0, "winterDays": 151, "winterCoverage": 1.0, "adequate": true, "observedTNnC": -8.2, "era5TNnC": -4.25693, "residualC": -3.94307 }, { "year": 2006, "days": 365, "coverage": 1.0, "winterDays": 151, "winterCoverage": 1.0, "adequate": true, "observedTNnC": -1.1, "era5TNnC": -0.89178, "residualC": -0.20822 }, { "year": 2007, "days": 365, "coverage": 1.0, "winterDays": 151, "winterCoverage": 1.0, "adequate": true, "observedTNnC": -2.6, "era5TNnC": -1.82578, "residualC": -0.77422 }, { "year": 2008, "days": 365, "coverage": 0.99727, "winterDays": 151, "winterCoverage": 0.99342, "adequate": true, "observedTNnC": -1.8, "era5TNnC": -0.33176, "residualC": -1.46824 }, { "year": 2009, "days": 364, "coverage": 0.99726, "winterDays": 150, "winterCoverage": 0.99338, "adequate": true, "observedTNnC": -2.9, "era5TNnC": -3.45792, "residualC": 0.55792 }, { "year": 2010, "days": 361, "coverage": 0.98904, "winterDays": 148, "winterCoverage": 0.98013, "adequate": true, "observedTNnC": -0.8, "era5TNnC": -2.25845, "residualC": 1.45845 }, { "year": 2011, "days": 363, "coverage": 0.99452, "winterDays": 151, "winterCoverage": 1.0, "adequate": true, "observedTNnC": -0.5, "era5TNnC": -1.23618, "residualC": 0.73618 }, { "year": 2012, "days": 358, "coverage": 0.97814, "winterDays": 146, "winterCoverage": 0.96053, "adequate": true, "observedTNnC": -4.8, "era5TNnC": -2.51224, "residualC": -2.28776 }, { "year": 2013, "days": 365, "coverage": 1.0, "winterDays": 151, "winterCoverage": 1.0, "adequate": true, "observedTNnC": -2.7, "era5TNnC": -1.41293, "residualC": -1.28707 }, { "year": 2014, "days": 364, "coverage": 0.99726, "winterDays": 150, "winterCoverage": 0.99338, "adequate": true, "observedTNnC": -2.9, "era5TNnC": -2.59885, "residualC": -0.30115 }, { "year": 2015, "days": 363, "coverage": 0.99452, "winterDays": 151, "winterCoverage": 1.0, "adequate": true, "observedTNnC": -2.6, "era5TNnC": -1.86035, "residualC": -0.73965 }, { "year": 2016, "days": 356, "coverage": 0.97268, "winterDays": 151, "winterCoverage": 0.99342, "adequate": true, "observedTNnC": -2.0, "era5TNnC": 0.60593, "residualC": -2.60593 }, { "year": 2017, "days": 362, "coverage": 0.99178, "winterDays": 149, "winterCoverage": 0.98675, "adequate": true, "observedTNnC": -2.9, "era5TNnC": -0.74121, "residualC": -2.15879 }, { "year": 2018, "days": 365, "coverage": 1.0, "winterDays": 151, "winterCoverage": 1.0, "adequate": true, "observedTNnC": -3.1, "era5TNnC": -0.09949, "residualC": -3.00051 }, { "year": 2019, "days": 362, "coverage": 0.99178, "winterDays": 150, "winterCoverage": 0.99338, "adequate": true, "observedTNnC": -2.5, "era5TNnC": 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"winterCoverage": 1.0, "adequate": true, "observedTNnC": -3.8, "era5TNnC": -1.33826, "residualC": -2.46174 } ] }, { "id": "SPE00120170", "name": "JAEN", "lat": 37.7778, "lng": -3.8075, "elevationM": 582.0, "nativeBio06": 2.15, "nativeBio11": 8.45, "meanResidualC": 1.8337442424242423, "matchedYears": 33, "acceptedYears": [ 1991, 1992, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 ], "region": "iberia", "recordClass": "15+-year primary", "source": "NOAA GHCN-Daily", "url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/ghcn/daily/all/SPE00120170.dly", "rawSHA256": "ba929da2ac4bbc22ff522d2238f0a0e6b6e8b0bb623c00c32184e16df7707356", "developmentStation": false, "includedInGeographicCV": true, "qualityRejected": 0, "era5NativePoint": { "lat": 37.8, "lng": -3.8000000000000114, "index": [ 522, 3562 ], "nearestGridPointWasMissing": false, "distanceKm": 2.555, "fallbackRule": "Nearest valid land point within 15 km only when rounded native point is missing" }, "nativeClimate": { "bio05": 32.45, "bio06": 2.15, "bio10": 25.15, "bio11": 8.45 }, "era5ReferenceNativeClimate": { "bio05": 33.05, "bio06": 2.45, "bio10": 25.65, "bio11": 8.75 }, "annual": [ { "year": 1991, "days": 365, "coverage": 1.0, "winterDays": 151, "winterCoverage": 1.0, "adequate": true, "observedTNnC": -1.0, "era5TNnC": -2.83853, "residualC": 1.83853 }, { "year": 1992, "days": 366, "coverage": 1.0, "winterDays": 152, "winterCoverage": 1.0, "adequate": true, "observedTNnC": -2.5, "era5TNnC": -3.02988, "residualC": 0.52988 }, { "year": 1993, "days": 306, "coverage": 0.83836, "winterDays": 151, "winterCoverage": 1.0, "adequate": false, "observedTNnC": -2.6, "era5TNnC": -3.18051, "residualC": 0.58051 }, { "year": 1994, "days": 362, "coverage": 0.99178, "winterDays": 151, "winterCoverage": 1.0, "adequate": true, "observedTNnC": -3.2, "era5TNnC": -4.61551, "residualC": 1.41551 }, { "year": 1995, "days": 365, "coverage": 1.0, "winterDays": 151, "winterCoverage": 1.0, "adequate": true, "observedTNnC": -0.6, "era5TNnC": -3.27798, "residualC": 2.67798 }, { "year": 1996, "days": 366, "coverage": 1.0, "winterDays": 152, "winterCoverage": 1.0, "adequate": true, "observedTNnC": -1.4, "era5TNnC": -2.80679, "residualC": 1.40679 }, { "year": 1997, "days": 365, "coverage": 1.0, "winterDays": 151, "winterCoverage": 1.0, "adequate": true, "observedTNnC": -0.2, "era5TNnC": -1.65808, "residualC": 1.45808 }, { "year": 1998, "days": 365, "coverage": 1.0, "winterDays": 151, "winterCoverage": 1.0, "adequate": true, "observedTNnC": -0.7, "era5TNnC": -2.91272, "residualC": 2.21272 }, { "year": 1999, "days": 345, "coverage": 0.94521, "winterDays": 151, "winterCoverage": 1.0, "adequate": false, "observedTNnC": -2.0, "era5TNnC": -3.10068, "residualC": 1.10068 }, { "year": 2000, "days": 356, "coverage": 0.97268, "winterDays": 152, "winterCoverage": 1.0, "adequate": true, "observedTNnC": 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"winterCoverage": 1.0, "adequate": true, "observedTNnC": -0.7, "era5TNnC": -2.77823, "residualC": 2.07823 }, { "year": 2024, "days": 366, "coverage": 1.0, "winterDays": 152, "winterCoverage": 1.0, "adequate": true, "observedTNnC": 1.2, "era5TNnC": -2.1066, "residualC": 3.3066 }, { "year": 2025, "days": 364, "coverage": 0.99726, "winterDays": 151, "winterCoverage": 1.0, "adequate": true, "observedTNnC": -0.4, "era5TNnC": -2.87619, "residualC": 2.47619 } ] }, { "id": "SPE00120089", "name": "GRANADA/AEROPUERTO", "lat": 37.1894, "lng": -3.7892, "elevationM": 567.0, "nativeBio06": 2.35, "nativeBio11": 8.85, "meanResidualC": -3.2762502857142857, "matchedYears": 35, "acceptedYears": [ 1991, 1992, 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 ], "region": "iberia", "recordClass": "15+-year primary", "source": "NOAA GHCN-Daily", "url": 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[ 0.029411764705882353, 0.08823529411764706, 0.14705882352941177, 0.20588235294117646, 0.2647058823529412, 0.3235294117647059, 0.38235294117647056, 0.4411764705882353, 0.5, 0.5588235294117647, 0.6176470588235294, 0.6764705882352942, 0.7352941176470589, 0.7941176470588235, 0.8529411764705882, 0.9117647058823529, 0.9705882352941176 ] }, "caveats": [ "Error convolution describes thermometer-scale uncertainty and does not correct freeze timing/duration, cold pools or yield response.", "Model choice from these CV comparisons requires external validation; scores are not independently confirmed future skill.", "Few training stations in some regions and no adequate Japan/Chile/North Africa stations." ] }