{ "protocol": { "declaredUTC": "2026-10-18T17:58:39.736385+00:00", "thresholdsC": [ -5, -7, -10, -12 ], "event": "Calendar year station TNn <= threshold, not crop-loss event.", "residualDistribution": "Training station-year TNn(station) minus matched TNn(ERA5EX), with each station equal total mass; 17 equally weighted inverse-CDF midpoint quantiles. Convolve source ERA5 annual distribution with residual distribution.", "localCorrection": "Station residual mean, Gaussian geographic distance scales 100/250/500km, Gaussian native CHELSA BIO06 difference scale3C, no neighbours beyond500km. Weight-sum support shrinkage: correction=weightedMeanBias*(1-exp(-sumWeights)); no neighbour implies zero correction.", "cv": [ "Leave-one-geographic-region-out, raw fallback when no local neighbour.", "Leave100kmstationclusterout: for each held station exclude all training stations within100km, preventing immediate neighbouring sources." ], "metrics": "Station-balanced annual-event Brier score and absolute observed-versus-predicted annual freeze-frequency error; source probabilities use only exact matched accepted years to avoid differing observation windows.", "caveats": [ "Error convolution describes thermometer-scale uncertainty and does not correct freeze timing/duration, cold pools or yield response.", "Model choice from these CV comparisons requires external validation; scores are not independently confirmed future skill.", "Few training stations in some regions and no adequate Japan/Chile/North Africa stations." ] }, "stations": 49, "matchedYears": 1235, 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